Chapter 5 · The end of House Ziandmond

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 97

1. #13995 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,197,250
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.62
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,324,990

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	80,460
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   Result	93,809

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 97

1. #13997 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,612,420
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,491,275

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	90,720
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   Result	105,772

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 97

1. #14056 Harvest in Mueness: 73% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,308,130
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.62
   the season	×0.30
   Result	601,405

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	83,160
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   Result	24,239

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 97

1. #14057 Harvest in Llaness: 99% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,116,170
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	468,567

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	129,600
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	36,430

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Stianess era 97

1. #14058 Harvest in Stianess: 78% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,740,940
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   Result	644,977

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	93,960
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   Result	27,387

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 97

1. #14078 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,347,820
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,340,803

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	83,970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   Result	97,902

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 97

1. #14079 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,140,740
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	1,896,031

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	130,950
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   Result	147,240

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 97

1. #14080 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,785,040
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,610,321

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	95,040
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   Result	110,809

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 98

1. #14141 Harvest in Mueness: 71% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,463,740
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   Result	605,463

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	86,940
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   Result	25,341

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 98

1. #14142 Harvest in Llaness: 97% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,216,970
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	490,886

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	135,810
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	38,176

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Stianess era 98

1. #14143 Harvest in Stianess: 77% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,917,340
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   Result	675,390

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	98,280
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   Result	28,646

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 98

1. #14165 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,504,060
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,534,270

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	88,020
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	106,152

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 98

1. #14166 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,243,430
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,003,099

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	137,430
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   Result	155,779

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 98

1. #14167 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,963,330
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,827,237

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	99,630
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	120,153

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Tueguerk, of House Mathsond, dies era 98

1. #14196 Tueguerk dies (accident, 10 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Gestuind is born, son of Sauchia era 98

1. #14215 Gestuind is born, to Sauchia and Skuethllel.

   Chance that season: 5.40%

   The chance of a birth

   Ruleset base	1500
   breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
   overcrowding	×0.60
   Result	540

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 98

1. #14232 Harvest in Mueness: 72% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,624,390
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   Result	655,324

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	90,990
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	27,433

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 98

1. #14233 Harvest in Llaness: 95% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,325,960
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	519,197

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	142,290
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	40,322

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Stianess era 98

1. #14234 Harvest in Stianess: 78% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,102,560
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   Result	731,639

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	103,140
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	31,096

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 98

1. #14248 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,666,600
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,651,825

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	92,070
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	111,036

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 98

1. #14249 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,354,310
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,102,101

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	144,180
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   Result	163,430

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 98

1. #14250 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,150,440
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,960,712

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	104,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	125,689

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Marriage arranged between Mendbrark and Zaibres era 98

1. #14267 Mendbrark and Zaibres marry (political).

2. #14265 Sauchia decides: arrange_marriage.

   Motive of Sauchia

   arrange a marriage (chosen)	weight 3038 · 45.76%
   wait	weight 3600
   the people's value: community	×1.21
   the people's value: honor	×1.04
   the trait: proud	×1.20

Root: A decision by Sauchia, with its motives.

Why? The drought leaves Mueness short of grain era 98

1. #14271 Harvest in Mueness: 71% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,707,550
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	670,360

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	93,150
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	28,084

2. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought leaves Stianess short of grain era 98

1. #14273 Harvest in Stianess: 78% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,198,320
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	748,716

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	105,570
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	31,829

2. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Zailira era 98

1. #14274 Harvest in Zailira: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,043,090
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.73
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	449,735

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	51,300
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	15,466

2. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought leaves Mueness short of grain era 99

1. #14296 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,750,390
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	474,674

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	94,230
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	19,887

2. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 99

1. #14297 Famine in Mueness.

   • 37% of what was needed was eaten; 775,444 rations were missing

2. #14296 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,750,390
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	474,674

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	94,230
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	19,887

3. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14306 Season in Mueness: 71 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	5,235,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14297	×0.38
  Result	715,959

Why? The drought leaves Stianess short of grain era 99

1. #14299 Harvest in Stianess: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,246,830
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	530,157

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	106,650
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	22,508

2. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 99

1. #14300 Famine in Stianess.

   • 37% of what was needed was eaten; 891,268 rations were missing

2. #14299 Harvest in Stianess: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,246,830
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	530,157

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	106,650
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	22,508

3. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14308 Season in Stianess: 79 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	5,928,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14300	×0.37
  Result	796,438

• #14310 Guilskaith dies (hunger, 48 years old).

  Chance that season: 8.66%

Why? The drought leaves Zailira short of grain era 99

1. #14301 Harvest in Zailira: 47% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,068,290
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.73
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	318,697

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	52,110
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	10,997

2. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 99

1. #14302 Famine in Zailira.

   • 47% of what was needed was eaten; 366,662 rations were missing

2. #14301 Harvest in Zailira: 47% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,068,290
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.73
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	318,697

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	52,110
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	10,997

3. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14309 Season in Zailira: 50 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	2,887,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14302	×0.48
  Result	496,153

Why? Guilskaith, of House Mathsond, dies of hunger era 99

1. #14310 Guilskaith dies (hunger, 48 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.66%

2. #14300 Famine in Stianess.

   • 37% of what was needed was eaten; 891,268 rations were missing

3. #14299 Harvest in Stianess: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,246,830
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	530,157

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	106,650
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	22,508

4. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought leaves Mueness short of grain era 99

1. #14321 Harvest in Mueness: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,485,790
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	189,079

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	87,480
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	7912

2. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 99

1. #14322 Famine in Mueness.

   • 16% of what was needed was eaten; 961,155 rations were missing

2. #14321 Harvest in Mueness: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,485,790
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	189,079

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	87,480
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	7912

3. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14331 Season in Mueness: 29 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	4,866,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14322	×0.16
  Result	288,514

• #14337 Lauthdairk dies (hunger, 0 years old).

  Chance that season: 17.46%

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 99

1. #14323 Harvest in Llaness: 94% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,441,250
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	544,931

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	149,580
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	42,387

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The drought leaves Stianess short of grain era 99

1. #14324 Harvest in Stianess: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,936,870
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	210,627

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	99,090
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	8962

2. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 99

1. #14325 Famine in Stianess.

   • 16% of what was needed was eaten; 1,093,501 rations were missing

2. #14324 Harvest in Stianess: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,936,870
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	210,627

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	99,090
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	8962

3. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14333 Season in Stianess: 32 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	5,496,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14325	×0.16
  Result	320,328

• #14335 Skuethllel dies (hunger, 46 years old).

  Chance that season: 16.41%

• #14336 Chuirksa dies (hunger, 12 years old).

  Chance that season: 16.41%

Why? The drought leaves Zailira short of grain era 99

1. #14326 Harvest in Zailira: 19% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,000,880
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.73
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	132,133

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	50,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	4542

2. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 99

1. #14327 Famine in Zailira.

   • 19% of what was needed was eaten; 537,968 rations were missing

2. #14326 Harvest in Zailira: 19% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,000,880
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.73
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	132,133

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	50,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	4542

3. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14334 Season in Zailira: 20 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	2,793,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14327	×0.20
  Result	200,191

Why? Skuethllel, of House Miandthe, dies of hunger era 99

1. #14335 Skuethllel dies (hunger, 46 years old).

   Chance that season: 16.41%

2. #14325 Famine in Stianess.

   • 16% of what was needed was eaten; 1,093,501 rations were missing

3. #14324 Harvest in Stianess: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,936,870
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	210,627

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	99,090
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	8962

4. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chuirksa, of House Mathsond, dies of hunger era 99

1. #14336 Chuirksa dies (hunger, 12 years old).

   Chance that season: 16.41%

2. #14325 Famine in Stianess.

   • 16% of what was needed was eaten; 1,093,501 rations were missing

3. #14324 Harvest in Stianess: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,936,870
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	210,627

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	99,090
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	8962

4. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Little Lauthdairk dies of hunger era 99

1. #14337 Lauthdairk dies (hunger, 0 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.46%

2. #14322 Famine in Mueness.

   • 16% of what was needed was eaten; 961,155 rations were missing

3. #14321 Harvest in Mueness: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,485,790
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	189,079

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	87,480
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #14269	×0.30
   Result	7912

4. #14269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 99

1. #14341 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,959,110
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,140,141

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	74,520
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	89,871

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 99

1. #14342 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,470,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,206,165

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	151,200
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   Result	171,388

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 99

1. #14343 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,339,630
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,382,321

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	83,970
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	101,267

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Zailira eats its fill again era 99

1. #14344 Harvest in Zailira: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,726,200
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.72
   the season	×1.20
   Result	1,494,730

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	43,470
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	52,424

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 99

1. #14409 Harvest in Mueness: 76% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,044,160
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   Result	550,413

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	76,410
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	23,037

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 99

1. #14410 Harvest in Llaness: 92% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,561,580
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	571,791

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	156,870
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	44,453

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Stianess era 99

1. #14411 Harvest in Stianess: 85% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,436,020
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   Result	612,770

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	86,400
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	26,049

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 99

1. #14432 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,074,400
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,223,523

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	77,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	93,127

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 99

1. #14433 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,593,710
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,315,855

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	158,760
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   Result	179,957

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 99

1. #14434 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,471,300
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,476,248

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	87,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	105,175

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 100

1. #14502 Harvest in Mueness: 75% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,169,530
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   Result	573,081

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	79,650
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	24,014

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 100

1. #14503 Harvest in Llaness: 90% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,689,470
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	600,339

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	164,700
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	46,672

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Stianess era 100

1. #14504 Harvest in Stianess: 83% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,580,920
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   Result	638,611

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	89,910
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	27,107

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 100

1. #14520 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,202,920
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,316,474

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	80,460
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	97,034

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 100

1. #14521 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,722,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,430,607

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	166,590
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   Result	188,833

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 100

1. #14522 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,619,980
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,582,309

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	90,990
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	109,733

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 100

1. #14580 Harvest in Mueness: 74% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,305,610
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   Result	597,685

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	83,160
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	25,072

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 100

1. #14581 Harvest in Llaness: 89% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,823,030
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	630,152

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	172,800
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	48,968

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Stianess era 100

1. #14582 Harvest in Stianess: 82% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,739,050
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   Result	666,811

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	93,960
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	28,328

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 101

1. #14604 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,341,520
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,416,714

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	83,970
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	101,267

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The drought leaves Llaness short of grain era 101

1. #14605 Harvest in Llaness: 67% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,857,680
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #14595	×0.30
   Result	765,464

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	174,960
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #14595	×0.30
   Result	59,496

2. #14595 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 101

1. #14606 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,781,260
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,697,358

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	95,040
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	114,618

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 101

1. #14636 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,892,330
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   Result	2,152,071

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	177,120
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   Result	167,307

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 101

1. #14668 Harvest in Mueness: 73% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,451,770
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   Result	624,112

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	86,670
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	26,131

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 101

1. #14669 Harvest in Llaness: 88% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,960,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	660,809

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	181,170
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	51,339

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Stianess era 101

1. #14670 Harvest in Stianess: 81% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,909,780
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   Result	697,259

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	98,280
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	29,631

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Ruitaurk, head of Mueness, dies era 101

1. #14679 Ruitaurk dies (age, 66 years old).

   Chance that season: 12.80%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Gestuind and Salziark marry era 101

1. #14681 Gestuind and Salziark marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #14680 Salziark, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Gestuind.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brelcherk, at the head of Mueness era 101

1. #14686 Brelcherk is set at the head of Mueness.

2. #14679 Ruitaurk dies (age, 66 years old).

   Chance that season: 12.80%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 101

1. #14700 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,490,830
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,524,701

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	87,750
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	105,826

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 101

1. #14701 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,995,650
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,674,737

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	183,330
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   Result	207,808

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 101

1. #14702 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,954,510
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,820,945

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	99,360
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	119,828

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 102

1. #14755 Harvest in Mueness: 72% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,607,380
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   Result	652,248

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	90,720
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	27,352

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 102

1. #14756 Harvest in Llaness: 86% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,101,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	692,309

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	189,810
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	53,788

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Stianess era 102

1. #14757 Harvest in Stianess: 80% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,091,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   Result	729,616

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	102,870
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	31,015

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Zailira era 102

1. #14758 Harvest in Zailira: 98% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,148,300
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.69
   the season	×0.30
   Result	445,367

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	54,000
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   Result	16,281

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 102

1. #14771 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,648,330
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,638,611

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	91,530
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	110,385

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 102

1. #14772 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,138,030
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,801,864

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	192,240
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   Result	217,907

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 102

1. #14773 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,139,100
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,952,622

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	103,950
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	125,363

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Zailira eats its fill again era 102

1. #14774 Harvest in Zailira: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,174,760
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.68
   the season	×1.20
   Result	1,771,412

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	54,540
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   Result	65,775

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 102

1. #14789 Harvest in Mueness: 54% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,688,650
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	444,628

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	92,610
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	18,614

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 102

1. #14790 Famine in Mueness.

   • 54% of what was needed was eaten; 565,244 rations were missing

2. #14789 Harvest in Mueness: 54% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,688,650
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	444,628

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	92,610
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	18,614

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14797 Season in Mueness: 100 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	5,148,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14790	×0.54
  Result	1,003,551

Why? The drought leaves Llaness short of grain era 102

1. #14791 Harvest in Llaness: 86% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,175,200
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the drought #14786	×0.30
   Result	708,763

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	194,400
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the drought #14786	×0.30
   Result	55,089

2. #14786 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 102

1. #14792 Harvest in Stianess: 61% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,185,090
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	497,571

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	105,030
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	21,111

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 102

1. #14793 Harvest in Zailira: 77% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,200,590
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.68
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	298,741

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	55,350
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	11,125

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 102

1. #14811 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,649,590
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	307,944

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	91,800
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,916

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 102

1. #14812 Famine in Mueness.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 902,334 rations were missing

2. #14811 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,649,590
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	307,944

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	91,800
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,916

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14822 Season in Mueness: 47 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	5,094,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14812	×0.25
  Result	467,079

• #14826 Siallol dies (hunger, 51 years old).

  Chance that season: 13.01%

• #14829 Thuenmaund dies (hunger, 63 years old).

  Chance that season: 20.66%

Why? The drought leaves Llaness short of grain era 102

1. #14813 Harvest in Llaness: 40% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,212,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14786	×0.30
   Result	501,942

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	196,560
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14786	×0.30
   Result	38,990

2. #14786 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 102

1. #14814 Famine in Llaness.

   • 40% of what was needed was eaten; 784,831 rations were missing

2. #14813 Harvest in Llaness: 40% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,212,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14786	×0.30
   Result	501,942

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	196,560
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14786	×0.30
   Result	38,990

3. #14786 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14823 Season in Llaness: 79 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	5,463,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14814	×0.40
  Result	792,178

• #14827 Zaibres dies (hunger, 10 years old).

  Chance that season: 7.58%

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 102

1. #14815 Harvest in Stianess: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,232,970
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	352,284

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	106,380
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	14,967

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 102

1. #14816 Famine in Stianess.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 1,058,598 rations were missing

2. #14815 Harvest in Stianess: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,232,970
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	352,284

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	106,380
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	14,967

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14824 Season in Stianess: 53 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	5,908,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14816	×0.25
  Result	531,765

• #14828 Gestuind dies (hunger, 7 years old).

  Chance that season: 13.18%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 102

1. #14817 Harvest in Zailira: 28% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,227,680
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.68
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	211,693

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	55,890
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7863

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 102

1. #14818 Famine in Zailira.

   • 28% of what was needed was eaten; 537,653 rations were missing

2. #14817 Harvest in Zailira: 28% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,227,680
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.68
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	211,693

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	55,890
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7863

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14825 Season in Zailira: 32 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	3,109,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14818	×0.28
  Result	317,691

Why? Siallol, of House Thausras, dies of hunger era 102

1. #14826 Siallol dies (hunger, 51 years old).

   Chance that season: 13.01%

2. #14812 Famine in Mueness.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 902,334 rations were missing

3. #14811 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,649,590
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	307,944

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	91,800
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,916

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Zaibres, of House Ziandmond, dies of hunger era 102

1. #14827 Zaibres dies (hunger, 10 years old).

   Chance that season: 7.58%

2. #14814 Famine in Llaness.

   • 40% of what was needed was eaten; 784,831 rations were missing

3. #14813 Harvest in Llaness: 40% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,212,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14786	×0.30
   Result	501,942

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	196,560
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #14786	×0.30
   Result	38,990

4. #14786 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Gestuind, of House Miandthe, dies of hunger era 102

1. #14828 Gestuind dies (hunger, 7 years old).

   Chance that season: 13.18%

2. #14816 Famine in Stianess.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 1,058,598 rations were missing

3. #14815 Harvest in Stianess: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	4,232,970
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	352,284

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	106,380
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	14,967

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thuenmaund, of House Melskue, dies of hunger era 102

1. #14829 Thuenmaund dies (hunger, 63 years old).

   Chance that season: 20.66%

2. #14812 Famine in Mueness.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 902,334 rations were missing

3. #14811 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,649,590
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	307,944

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	91,800
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,916

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 102

1. #14843 Harvest in Mueness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,221,190
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	116,484

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	81,000
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4884

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 102

1. #14844 Famine in Mueness.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 938,831 rations were missing

2. #14843 Harvest in Mueness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,221,190
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	116,484

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	81,000
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4884

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14854 Season in Mueness: 18 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	4,497,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14844	×0.11
  Result	179,376

• #14859 Tases dies (hunger, 5 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.28%

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 102

1. #14845 Harvest in Llaness: 57% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,013,920
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	672,762

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	184,410
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	52,258

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 102

1. #14846 Famine in Llaness.

   • 57% of what was needed was eaten; 521,954 rations were missing

2. #14845 Harvest in Llaness: 57% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,013,920
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	672,762

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	184,410
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	52,258

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Evidence

• #14855 Season in Llaness: 105 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	5,125,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14846	×0.57
  Result	1,056,181

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 102

1. #14847 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,730,860
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	133,070

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	93,690
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	5649

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 102

1. #14848 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 1,094,908 rations were missing

2. #14847 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,730,860
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	133,070

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	93,690
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	5649

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14856 Season in Stianess: 20 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	5,208,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14848	×0.11
  Result	203,986

• #14858 Tothstauth dies (hunger, 20 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.36%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 102

1. #14849 Harvest in Zailira: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,993,320
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.68
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	81,181

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	49,950
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3011

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 102

1. #14850 Famine in Zailira.

   • 12% of what was needed was eaten; 580,734 rations were missing

2. #14849 Harvest in Zailira: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,993,320
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.68
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	81,181

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	49,950
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3011

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14857 Season in Zailira: 13 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	2,782,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14850	×0.12
  Result	124,611

Why? Tothstauth, of House Mathsond, dies of hunger era 102

1. #14858 Tothstauth dies (hunger, 20 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.36%

2. #14848 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 1,094,908 rations were missing

3. #14847 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,730,860
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	133,070

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	93,690
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	5649

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tases, of House Ziandmond, dies of hunger era 102

1. #14859 Tases dies (hunger, 5 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.28%

2. #14844 Famine in Mueness.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 938,831 rations were missing

3. #14843 Harvest in Mueness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,221,190
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	116,484

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	81,000
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4884

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 102

1. #14869 Harvest in Mueness: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,669,310
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	386,109

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	66,960
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	16,150

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 102

1. #14870 Famine in Mueness.

   • 44% of what was needed was eaten; 475,886 rations were missing

2. #14869 Harvest in Mueness: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,669,310
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	386,109

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	66,960
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	16,150

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14879 Season in Mueness: 60 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	3,726,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14870	×0.45
  Result	601,197

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 102

1. #14871 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,015,810
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	2,692,737

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	184,680
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×1.20
   Result	209,338

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 102

1. #14872 Harvest in Stianess: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,089,520
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	440,781

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	77,490
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	18,690

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 102

1. #14873 Famine in Stianess.

   • 44% of what was needed was eaten; 561,210 rations were missing

2. #14872 Harvest in Stianess: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,089,520
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	440,781

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	77,490
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	18,690

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14881 Season in Stianess: 68 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	4,312,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14873	×0.44
  Result	683,410

• #14884 Skanses dies (hunger, 54 years old).

  Chance that season: 6.20%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 102

1. #14874 Harvest in Zailira: 49% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,663,200
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.67
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	268,539

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	41,850
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	10,094

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 102

1. #14875 Famine in Zailira.

   • 49% of what was needed was eaten; 275,686 rations were missing

2. #14874 Harvest in Zailira: 49% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,663,200
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.67
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	268,539

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	41,850
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	10,094

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14882 Season in Zailira: 41 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	2,322,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14875	×0.49
  Result	413,446

Why? Lanllia, of House Mathsond, dies era 102

1. #14883 Lanllia dies (accident, 19 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Skanses, of House Mathsond, dies of hunger era 102

1. #14884 Skanses dies (hunger, 54 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.20%

2. #14873 Famine in Stianess.

   • 44% of what was needed was eaten; 561,210 rations were missing

3. #14872 Harvest in Stianess: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,089,520
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	440,781

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	77,490
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	18,690

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 102

1. #14897 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,542,050
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	306,417

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	63,720
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,807

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 102

1. #14898 Famine in Mueness.

   • 37% of what was needed was eaten; 509,826 rations were missing

2. #14897 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,542,050
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	306,417

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	63,720
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,807

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14906 Season in Mueness: 48 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	3,547,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14898	×0.38
  Result	479,806

• #14910 Tuelbruen dies (hunger, 62 years old).

  Chance that season: 8.57%

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 102

1. #14900 Harvest in Stianess: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,933,910
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	348,816

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	73,710
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	14,815

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 102

1. #14901 Famine in Stianess.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 596,750 rations were missing

2. #14900 Harvest in Stianess: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,933,910
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	348,816

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	73,710
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	14,815

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14908 Season in Stianess: 54 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	4,095,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14901	×0.37
  Result	544,422

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 102

1. #14902 Harvest in Zailira: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,615,320
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.67
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	217,340

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	40,500
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	8140

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 102

1. #14903 Famine in Zailira.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 307,780 rations were missing

2. #14902 Harvest in Zailira: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,615,320
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.67
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	217,340

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	40,500
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	8140

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14909 Season in Zailira: 34 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	2,254,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14903	×0.42
  Result	336,984

Why? Tuelbruen, of House Melskue, dies of hunger era 102

1. #14910 Tuelbruen dies (hunger, 62 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.57%

2. #14898 Famine in Mueness.

   • 37% of what was needed was eaten; 509,826 rations were missing

3. #14897 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,542,050
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	306,417

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	63,720
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,807

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 103

1. #14925 Harvest in Mueness: 26% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,350,530
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	198,332

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	59,130
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	8319

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 103

1. #14926 Famine in Mueness.

   • 26% of what was needed was eaten; 551,763 rations were missing

2. #14925 Harvest in Mueness: 26% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,350,530
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	198,332

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	59,130
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	8319

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14934 Season in Mueness: 31 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	3,280,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14926	×0.26
  Result	312,841

• #14938 Santhuiche dies (hunger, 16 years old).

  Chance that season: 12.63%

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 103

1. #14928 Harvest in Stianess: 26% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,708,370
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	225,401

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	68,040
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9573

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 103

1. #14929 Famine in Stianess.

   • 26% of what was needed was eaten; 641,327 rations were missing

2. #14928 Harvest in Stianess: 26% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,708,370
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	225,401

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	68,040
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9573

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14936 Season in Stianess: 36 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	3,780,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14929	×0.26
  Result	354,624

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 103

1. #14930 Harvest in Zailira: 29% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,518,930
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.67
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	143,059

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	38,070
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	5356

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 103

1. #14931 Famine in Zailira.

   • 29% of what was needed was eaten; 347,285 rations were missing

2. #14930 Harvest in Zailira: 29% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,518,930
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.67
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	143,059

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	38,070
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	5356

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14937 Season in Zailira: 22 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	2,119,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14931	×0.29
  Result	223,870

Why? Santhuiche, of House Ziandmond, dies of hunger era 103

1. #14938 Santhuiche dies (hunger, 16 years old).

   Chance that season: 12.63%

2. #14926 Famine in Mueness.

   • 26% of what was needed was eaten; 551,763 rations were missing

3. #14925 Harvest in Mueness: 26% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,350,530
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	198,332

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	59,130
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	8319

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Marriage arranged between Gendlle and Brelcherk era 103

1. #14946 Gendlle and Brelcherk marry (political).

2. #14944 Sauchia decides: arrange_marriage.

   Motive of Sauchia

   arrange a marriage (chosen)	weight 3038 · 35.17%
   wait	weight 5598
   the people's value: community	×1.21
   the people's value: honor	×1.04
   the trait: proud	×1.20

Root: A decision by Sauchia, with its motives.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 103

1. #14951 Harvest in Mueness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,076,480
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	75,089

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	52,110
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3142

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 103

1. #14952 Famine in Mueness.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 581,858 rations were missing

2. #14951 Harvest in Mueness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,076,480
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	75,089

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	52,110
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3142

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14961 Season in Mueness: 12 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	2,898,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14952	×0.11
  Result	119,872

• #14966 Gatond dies (hunger, 50 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.13%

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 103

1. #14953 Harvest in Llaness: 88% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	3,112,200
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	694,700

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	190,620
   the weather: cycle	×0.94
   the season	×0.30
   Result	54,017

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 103

1. #14954 Harvest in Stianess: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,390,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	85,253

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	60,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3630

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 103

1. #14955 Famine in Stianess.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 673,209 rations were missing

2. #14954 Harvest in Stianess: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,390,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	85,253

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	60,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3630

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14963 Season in Stianess: 14 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	3,336,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14955	×0.11
  Result	135,828

• #14965 Sauchia dies (hunger, 52 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.20%

• #14967 Brelcherk dies (hunger, 17 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.20%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 103

1. #14956 Harvest in Zailira: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,359,540
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.67
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	54,877

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	34,020
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2051

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 103

1. #14957 Famine in Zailira.

   • 12% of what was needed was eaten; 380,294 rations were missing

2. #14956 Harvest in Zailira: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1,359,540
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.67
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	54,877

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	34,020
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2051

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #14964 Season in Zailira: 9 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	1,897,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #14957	×0.13
  Result	87,710

Why? Sauchia, ruler of the Methllerk, dies era 103

1. #14965 Sauchia dies (hunger, 52 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.20%

2. #14955 Famine in Stianess.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 673,209 rations were missing

3. #14954 Harvest in Stianess: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,390,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	85,253

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	60,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3630

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Gatond, of House Thausras, dies of hunger era 103

1. #14966 Gatond dies (hunger, 50 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.13%

2. #14952 Famine in Mueness.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 581,858 rations were missing

3. #14951 Harvest in Mueness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,076,480
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	75,089

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	52,110
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3142

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brelcherk, head of Stianess, dies era 103

1. #14967 Brelcherk dies (hunger, 17 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.20%

2. #14955 Famine in Stianess.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 673,209 rations were missing

3. #14954 Harvest in Stianess: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,390,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	85,253

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	60,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3630

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Ziandmond dies out era 103

1. #14969 House Ziandmond dies out.

2. #14967 Brelcherk dies (hunger, 17 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.20%

3. #14955 Famine in Stianess.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 673,209 rations were missing

4. #14954 Harvest in Stianess: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,390,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	85,253

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	60,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3630

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Thausras dies out era 103

1. #14970 House Thausras dies out.

2. #14966 Gatond dies (hunger, 50 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.13%

3. #14952 Famine in Mueness.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 581,858 rations were missing

4. #14951 Harvest in Mueness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,076,480
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	75,089

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	52,110
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3142

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 4 claimants to the seat of Sauchia era 103

1. #14971 The succession opens.

   • Salziark: 18 supporters (ties 157, own house 60, command 576, prestige 1530)
   • Charkgalta: 3 supporters (ties 253, own house 90, command 96, prestige 180)
   • Brantail: 3 supporters (ties 260, own house 90, command 144, prestige 69)
   • Mendbrark: 3 supporters (ties 203, own house 90, command 168, prestige 69)

2. #14965 Sauchia dies (hunger, 52 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.20%

3. #14955 Famine in Stianess.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 673,209 rations were missing

4. #14954 Harvest in Stianess: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,390,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	85,253

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	60,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3630

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Salziark succeeds Sauchia era 103

1. #14972 The succession is settled in favor of Salziark.

   • Salziark: 18 supporters (ties 157, own house 60, command 576, prestige 1530)
   • Charkgalta: 3 supporters (ties 253, own house 90, command 96, prestige 180)
   • Brantail: 3 supporters (ties 260, own house 90, command 144, prestige 69)
   • Mendbrark: 3 supporters (ties 203, own house 90, command 168, prestige 69)
   • The leader's margin: 5555 ‱ of the total support

2. #14971 The succession opens.

   • Salziark: 18 supporters (ties 157, own house 60, command 576, prestige 1530)
   • Charkgalta: 3 supporters (ties 253, own house 90, command 96, prestige 180)
   • Brantail: 3 supporters (ties 260, own house 90, command 144, prestige 69)
   • Mendbrark: 3 supporters (ties 203, own house 90, command 168, prestige 69)

3. #14965 Sauchia dies (hunger, 52 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.20%

4. #14955 Famine in Stianess.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 673,209 rations were missing

5. #14954 Harvest in Stianess: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	2,390,220
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	85,253

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	60,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.00
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3630

6. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.