Chapter 6 · The end of House Thuinmo

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 121

1. #18264 Harvest in Mueness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	66,150
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9260

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	378

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 121

1. #18265 Famine in Mueness.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 12,907 rations were missing

2. #18264 Harvest in Mueness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	66,150
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9260

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	378

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18272 Season in Mueness: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	91,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18265	×0.43
  Result	23,469

• #18277 Thethguerk dies (hunger, 62 years old).

  Chance that season: 6.67%

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 121

1. #18267 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	76,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	10,613

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	441

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 121

1. #18268 Famine in Stianess.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 15,271 rations were missing

2. #18267 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	76,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	10,613

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	441

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18274 Season in Stianess: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	106,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18268	×0.42
  Result	26,831

• #18276 Ruesrengen dies (hunger, 48 years old).

  Chance that season: 6.95%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 121

1. #18269 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 121

1. #18270 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #18269 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Ruesrengen, head of Stianess, dies era 121

1. #18276 Ruesrengen dies (hunger, 48 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.95%

2. #18268 Famine in Stianess.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 15,271 rations were missing

3. #18267 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	76,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	10,613

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	441

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thethguerk, head of Mueness, dies era 121

1. #18277 Thethguerk dies (hunger, 62 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.67%

2. #18265 Famine in Mueness.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 12,907 rations were missing

3. #18264 Harvest in Mueness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	66,150
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9260

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	378

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Thuinmo dies out era 121

1. #18278 House Thuinmo dies out.

2. #18276 Ruesrengen dies (hunger, 48 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.95%

3. #18268 Famine in Stianess.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 15,271 rations were missing

4. #18267 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	76,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	10,613

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	441

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Rasthuend dies out era 121

1. #18279 House Rasthuend dies out.

2. #18277 Thethguerk dies (hunger, 62 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.67%

3. #18265 Famine in Mueness.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 12,907 rations were missing

4. #18264 Harvest in Mueness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	66,150
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9260

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	378

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chuezailel, at the head of Stianess era 121

1. #18281 Chuezailel is set at the head of Stianess.

2. #18276 Ruesrengen dies (hunger, 48 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.95%

3. #18268 Famine in Stianess.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 15,271 rations were missing

4. #18267 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	76,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	10,613

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	441

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Mendbrark decides to hold a feast in Llaness era 121

1. #18282 Mendbrark decides: feast.

   Motive of Mendbrark

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 4486 · 49.66%
   wait	weight 4546
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the trait: generous	×1.40
   the emotion: sadness	×1.02
   the memory: child_died from hunger #17728	×0.71

2. #17728 Stiandzol dies (hunger, 26 years old).

   Chance that season: 16.44%

3. #17717 Famine in Llaness.

   • 16% of what was needed was eaten; 349,121 rations were missing

4. #17716 Harvest in Llaness: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	944,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #17661	×0.30
   Result	62,249

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	57,780
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #17661	×0.30
   Result	4835

5. #17661 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 121

1. #18290 Harvest in Mueness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	63,630
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7423

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	315

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 121

1. #18291 Famine in Mueness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 13,592 rations were missing

2. #18290 Harvest in Mueness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	63,630
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7423

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	315

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18298 Season in Mueness: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	88,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18291	×0.36
  Result	19,259

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 121

1. #18293 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	98,280
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	11,309

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	472

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 121

1. #18294 Famine in Stianess.

   • 34% of what was needed was eaten; 22,104 rations were missing

2. #18293 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	98,280
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	11,309

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	472

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18300 Season in Stianess: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	136,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18294	×0.35
  Result	28,468

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 121

1. #18295 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 121

1. #18296 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #18295 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thomas founds House Suesto era 121

1. #18303 Thomas founds House Suesto.

2. #18302 Thomas, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 121

1. #18315 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	58,590
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4784

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1350
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	183

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 121

1. #18316 Famine in Mueness.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 14,473 rations were missing

2. #18315 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	58,590
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4784

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1350
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	183

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18323 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	81,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18316	×0.26
  Result	12,417

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 121

1. #18318 Harvest in Stianess: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	90,090
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7256

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	330

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 121

1. #18319 Famine in Stianess.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 23,329 rations were missing

2. #18318 Harvest in Stianess: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	90,090
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7256

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	330

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18325 Season in Stianess: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	126,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18319	×0.25
  Result	18,544

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 121

1. #18320 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 121

1. #18321 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #18320 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chuezailel and Thaulskerk marry era 121

1. #18328 Chuezailel and Thaulskerk marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #18327 Thaulskerk, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Chuezailel.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Mendbrark decides to hold a feast in Llaness era 121

1. #18330 Mendbrark decides: feast.

   Motive of Mendbrark

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 5069 · 53.66%
   wait	weight 4376
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the trait: generous	×1.40
   the emotion: joy	×1.10
   the emotion: sadness	×1.05
   the memory: child_died from hunger #17728	×0.71

2. #17728 Stiandzol dies (hunger, 26 years old).

   Chance that season: 16.44%

3. #17717 Famine in Llaness.

   • 16% of what was needed was eaten; 349,121 rations were missing

4. #17716 Harvest in Llaness: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	944,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #17661	×0.30
   Result	62,249

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	57,780
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #17661	×0.30
   Result	4835

5. #17661 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 121

1. #18337 Harvest in Mueness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	52,290
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1830

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1350
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	78

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 121

1. #18338 Famine in Mueness.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 14,832 rations were missing

2. #18337 Harvest in Mueness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	52,290
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1830

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1350
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	78

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18345 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	72,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18338	×0.11
  Result	4920

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 121

1. #18340 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	114,660
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3958

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	173

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 121

1. #18341 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 35,964 rations were missing

2. #18340 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	114,660
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3958

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	173

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18347 Season in Stianess: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	160,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18341	×0.10
  Result	9918

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 121

1. #18342 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 121

1. #18343 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #18342 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Skaurau and Gatuerk marry era 121

1. #18350 Skaurau and Gatuerk marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #18349 Gatuerk, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Skaurau.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 121

1. #18368 Harvest in Mueness: 45% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,840
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	5997

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1080
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	252

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 121

1. #18369 Famine in Mueness.

   • 45% of what was needed was eaten; 7521 rations were missing

2. #18368 Harvest in Mueness: 45% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,840
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	5997

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1080
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	252

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18376 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	60,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18369	×0.45
  Result	16,336

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 121

1. #18371 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	120,960
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	16,702

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	693

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 121

1. #18372 Famine in Stianess.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 24,486 rations were missing

2. #18371 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	120,960
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	16,702

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	693

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18378 Season in Stianess: 4 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	168,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18372	×0.41
  Result	41,821

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 121

1. #18373 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 121

1. #18374 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #18373 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thaulskerk, of House Tianlue, dies era 121

1. #18380 Thaulskerk dies (accident, 38 years old).

   Chance that season: 7.13%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chuezailel and Raithmel marry era 121

1. #18382 Chuezailel and Raithmel marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #18381 Raithmel, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Chuezailel.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Maslian founds House Dueta era 121

1. #18384 Maslian founds House Dueta.

2. #18383 Maslian, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Mueness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Suithdia founds House Raithmue era 121

1. #18386 Suithdia founds House Raithmue.

2. #18385 Suithdia, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Maslian, at the head of Mueness era 121

1. #18393 Maslian is set at the head of Mueness.

2. #18277 Thethguerk dies (hunger, 62 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.67%

3. #18265 Famine in Mueness.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 12,907 rations were missing

4. #18264 Harvest in Mueness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	66,150
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9260

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	378

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Marriage arranged between Thomas and Suithdia era 121

1. #18399 Thomas and Suithdia marry (political).

2. #18397 Mendbrark decides: arrange_marriage.

   Motive of Mendbrark

   arrange a marriage (chosen)	weight 2785 · 24.93%
   wait	weight 4376
   send settlers out	weight 4006
   the people's value: community	×1.21
   the people's value: honor	×1.04
   the trait: loyal	×1.10

Root: A decision by Mendbrark, with its motives.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 121

1. #18403 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	39,690
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4630

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1080
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	210

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 121

1. #18404 Famine in Mueness.

   • 37% of what was needed was eaten; 7985 rations were missing

2. #18403 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	39,690
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4630

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1080
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	210

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18410 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	55,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18404	×0.38
  Result	12,564

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 121

1. #18406 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	112,140
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,903

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	577

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 121

1. #18407 Famine in Stianess.

   • 34% of what was needed was eaten; 25,400 rations were missing

2. #18406 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	112,140
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,903

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	577

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18412 Season in Stianess: 4 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	156,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18407	×0.35
  Result	32,451

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 121

1. #18408 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 121

1. #18409 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #18408 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Maslian and Thachoguel marry era 121

1. #18415 Maslian and Thachoguel marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #18414 Thachoguel, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Maslian.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Maslian decides to ration the grain in Mueness era 121

1. #18417 Maslian decides: ration.

   Motive of Maslian

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 3968 · 59.56%
   wait	weight 2694
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: rash	×0.70
   the emotion: fear	×1.27
   the memory: famine #18404	×1.25

2. #18404 Famine in Mueness.

   • 37% of what was needed was eaten; 7985 rations were missing

3. #18403 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	39,690
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4630

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1080
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	210

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chuezailel decides to ration the grain in Stianess era 121

1. #18420 Chuezailel decides: ration.

   Motive of Chuezailel

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 14,043 · 67.18%
   wait	weight 6859
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: cautious	×1.30
   the trait: generous	×0.80
   the emotion: fear	×1.99
   the memory: famine #18407	×1.25

2. #18407 Famine in Stianess.

   • 34% of what was needed was eaten; 25,400 rations were missing

3. #18406 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	112,140
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,903

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	577

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 121

1. #18432 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	36,540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2984

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	110

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 121

1. #18433 Famine in Mueness.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 8921 rations were missing

2. #18432 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	36,540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2984

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	110

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18439 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	51,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18433	×0.26
  Result	7879

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 121

1. #18435 Harvest in Stianess: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	140,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	11,316

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	477

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 121

1. #18436 Famine in Stianess.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 37,077 rations were missing

2. #18435 Harvest in Stianess: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	140,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	11,316

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	477

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18441 Season in Stianess: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	196,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18436	×0.24
  Result	28,449

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 121

1. #18437 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 121

1. #18438 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #18437 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 122

1. #18460 Harvest in Mueness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	32,130
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1124

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	47

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 122

1. #18461 Famine in Mueness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 9629 rations were missing

2. #18460 Harvest in Mueness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	32,130
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1124

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	47

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18468 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	45,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18461	×0.11
  Result	2926

• #18474 Maslian dies (hunger, 55 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.37%

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 122

1. #18463 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	123,480
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4262

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	189

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 122

1. #18464 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 38,074 rations were missing

2. #18463 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	123,480
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4262

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	189

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18470 Season in Stianess: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	172,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18464	×0.10
  Result	10,826

• #18473 Thomas dies (hunger, 47 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.51%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 122

1. #18465 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 122

1. #18466 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #18465 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18472 Lasork dies (hunger, 38 years old).

  Chance that season: 22.35%

Why? Lasork, head of Zailira, dies era 122

1. #18472 Lasork dies (hunger, 38 years old).

   Chance that season: 22.35%

2. #18466 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

3. #18465 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thomas, of House Suesto, dies of hunger era 122

1. #18473 Thomas dies (hunger, 47 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.51%

2. #18464 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 38,074 rations were missing

3. #18463 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	123,480
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4262

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	189

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Maslian, head of Mueness, dies era 122

1. #18474 Maslian dies (hunger, 55 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.37%

2. #18461 Famine in Mueness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 9629 rations were missing

3. #18460 Harvest in Mueness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	32,130
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1124

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	47

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Lauthlaus dies out era 122

1. #18475 House Lauthlaus dies out.

2. #18472 Lasork dies (hunger, 38 years old).

   Chance that season: 22.35%

3. #18466 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

4. #18465 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Suesto dies out era 122

1. #18476 House Suesto dies out.

2. #18473 Thomas dies (hunger, 47 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.51%

3. #18464 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 38,074 rations were missing

4. #18463 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	123,480
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	4262

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	189

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thachoguel, at the head of Mueness era 122

1. #18478 Thachoguel is set at the head of Mueness.

2. #18474 Maslian dies (hunger, 55 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.37%

3. #18461 Famine in Mueness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 9629 rations were missing

4. #18460 Harvest in Mueness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	32,130
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1124

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	47

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 122

1. #18483 Harvest in Mueness: 43% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	27,090
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3792

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	126

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 122

1. #18484 Famine in Mueness.

   • 43% of what was needed was eaten; 5127 rations were missing

2. #18483 Harvest in Mueness: 43% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	27,090
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3792

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	126

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18490 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	37,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18484	×0.43
  Result	9744

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 122

1. #18486 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	140,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	19,399

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	819

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 122

1. #18487 Famine in Stianess.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 28,269 rations were missing

2. #18486 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	140,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	19,399

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	819

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18492 Season in Stianess: 5 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	195,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18487	×0.41
  Result	48,555

• #18494 Raithmel dies (hunger, 37 years old).

  Chance that season: 7.13%

Why? The bad weather strikes the fields of Zailira era 122

1. #18488 Harvest in Zailira: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Raithmel, of House Tianlue, dies of hunger era 122

1. #18494 Raithmel dies (hunger, 37 years old).

   Chance that season: 7.13%

2. #18487 Famine in Stianess.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 28,269 rations were missing

3. #18486 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	140,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	19,399

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	819

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 6 people flee the hunger of Mueness for Zailira era 122

1. #18498 6 neighbors move from Mueness to Zailira (hunger).

2. #18484 Famine in Mueness.

   • 43% of what was needed was eaten; 5127 rations were missing

3. #18483 Harvest in Mueness: 43% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	27,090
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3792

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	126

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 316 people leave Llaness for Zailira era 122

1. #18499 316 neighbors move from Llaness to Zailira (crowding).

2. #18485 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	952,560
   the weather: cycle	×0.92
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	830,797

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	58,320
   the weather: cycle	×0.92
   the season	×1.20
   Result	64,574

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? 33 people flee the hunger of Stianess for Zailira era 122

1. #18500 33 neighbors move from Stianess to Zailira (hunger).

2. #18487 Famine in Stianess.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 28,269 rations were missing

3. #18486 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	140,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	19,399

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	819

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 122

1. #18515 Harvest in Mueness: 35% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	22,680
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2645

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	105

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 122

1. #18516 Famine in Mueness.

   • 35% of what was needed was eaten; 5080 rations were missing

2. #18515 Harvest in Mueness: 35% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	22,680
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2645

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	105

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18523 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	31,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18516	×0.35
  Result	6637

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 122

1. #18518 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	118,440
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	13,628

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	577

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 122

1. #18519 Famine in Stianess.

   • 34% of what was needed was eaten; 26,565 rations were missing

2. #18518 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	118,440
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	13,628

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	577

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18525 Season in Stianess: 4 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	165,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18519	×0.35
  Result	34,491

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 122

1. #18520 Harvest in Zailira: 33% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	133,560
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	15,493

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	682

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 122

1. #18521 Famine in Zailira.

   • 33% of what was needed was eaten; 31,750 rations were missing

2. #18520 Harvest in Zailira: 33% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	133,560
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	15,493

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	682

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18526 Season in Zailira: 4 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	186,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18521	×0.34
  Result	37,665

Why? Bruenstui, of House Zolmaul, dies era 122

1. #18527 Bruenstui dies (accident, 34 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 5 people flee the hunger of Mueness for Llaness era 122

1. #18531 5 neighbors move from Mueness to Llaness (hunger).

2. #18516 Famine in Mueness.

   • 35% of what was needed was eaten; 5080 rations were missing

3. #18515 Harvest in Mueness: 35% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	22,680
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2645

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	105

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 28 people flee the hunger of Stianess for Llaness era 122

1. #18532 28 neighbors move from Stianess to Llaness (hunger).

2. #18519 Famine in Stianess.

   • 34% of what was needed was eaten; 26,565 rations were missing

3. #18518 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	118,440
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	13,628

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	577

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 32 people flee the hunger of Zailira for Llaness era 122

1. #18533 32 neighbors move from Zailira to Llaness (hunger).

2. #18521 Famine in Zailira.

   • 33% of what was needed was eaten; 31,750 rations were missing

3. #18520 Harvest in Zailira: 33% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	133,560
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	15,493

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	682

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thachoguel decides to ration the grain in Mueness era 122

1. #18534 Thachoguel decides: ration.

   Motive of Thachoguel

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 6737 · 50.44%
   wait	weight 6617
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: rash	×0.70
   the emotion: fear	×1.75
   the memory: spouse_died from hunger #18474	×1.54

2. #18474 Maslian dies (hunger, 55 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.37%

3. #18461 Famine in Mueness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 9629 rations were missing

4. #18460 Harvest in Mueness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	32,130
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1124

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	47

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chuezailel decides to ration the grain in Stianess era 122

1. #18537 Chuezailel decides: ration.

   Motive of Chuezailel

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 17,431 · 69.97%
   wait	weight 7481
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: cautious	×1.30
   the trait: generous	×0.80
   the emotion: fear	×2.00
   the memory: spouse_died from hunger #18494	×1.54

2. #18494 Raithmel dies (hunger, 37 years old).

   Chance that season: 7.13%

3. #18487 Famine in Stianess.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 28,269 rations were missing

4. #18486 Harvest in Stianess: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	140,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	19,399

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	819

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 122

1. #18543 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	19,530
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1594

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	73

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 122

1. #18544 Famine in Mueness.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 4813 rations were missing

2. #18543 Harvest in Mueness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	19,530
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1594

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	73

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18550 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	27,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18544	×0.26
  Result	4166

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 122

1. #18546 Harvest in Stianess: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	97,650
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7865

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	330

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 122

1. #18547 Famine in Stianess.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 25,285 rations were missing

2. #18546 Harvest in Stianess: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	97,650
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7865

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	330

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18552 Season in Stianess: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	136,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18547	×0.24
  Result	20,040

• #18554 Sesderkda dies (hunger, 51 years old).

  Chance that season: 13.37%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 122

1. #18548 Harvest in Zailira: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	110,880
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9003

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	367

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 122

1. #18549 Famine in Zailira.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 29,645 rations were missing

2. #18548 Harvest in Zailira: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	110,880
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9003

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	367

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18553 Season in Zailira: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	154,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18549	×0.24
  Result	22,257

Why? Sesderkda, of House Raithmue, dies of hunger era 122

1. #18554 Sesderkda dies (hunger, 51 years old).

   Chance that season: 13.37%

2. #18547 Famine in Stianess.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 25,285 rations were missing

3. #18546 Harvest in Stianess: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	97,650
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7865

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	330

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 21 people flee the hunger of Stianess for Llaness era 122

1. #18556 21 neighbors move from Stianess to Llaness (hunger).

2. #18547 Famine in Stianess.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 25,285 rations were missing

3. #18546 Harvest in Stianess: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	97,650
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	7865

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	330

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 25 people flee the hunger of Zailira for Llaness era 122

1. #18557 25 neighbors move from Zailira to Llaness (hunger).

2. #18549 Famine in Zailira.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 29,645 rations were missing

3. #18548 Harvest in Zailira: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	110,880
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	9003

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	367

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 122

1. #18567 Harvest in Mueness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	15,750
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	551

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	15

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 122

1. #18568 Famine in Mueness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 4834 rations were missing

2. #18567 Harvest in Mueness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	15,750
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	551

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	15

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18574 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	21,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18568	×0.10
  Result	1320

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 122

1. #18570 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	77,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2675

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	110

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 122

1. #18571 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 23,540 rations were missing

2. #18570 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	77,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2675

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	110

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18576 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	108,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18571	×0.11
  Result	6849

• #18578 Chuezailel dies (hunger, 39 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.47%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 122

1. #18572 Harvest in Zailira: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	88,830
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3091

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2160
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	126

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 122

1. #18573 Famine in Zailira.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 27,293 rations were missing

2. #18572 Harvest in Zailira: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	88,830
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	3091

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2160
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	126

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18577 Season in Zailira: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	123,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18573	×0.11
  Result	7778

Why? Chuezailel, head of Stianess, dies era 122

1. #18578 Chuezailel dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.47%

2. #18571 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 23,540 rations were missing

3. #18570 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	77,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2675

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	110

4. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Zesbres founds House Luelchau era 122

1. #18580 Zesbres founds House Luelchau.

2. #18579 Zesbres, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Zailira had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Tianlue dies out era 122

1. #18581 House Tianlue dies out.

2. #18578 Chuezailel dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.47%

3. #18571 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 23,540 rations were missing

4. #18570 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	77,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2675

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	110

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Suithdia, at the head of Stianess era 122

1. #18585 Suithdia is set at the head of Stianess.

2. #18578 Chuezailel dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.47%

3. #18571 Famine in Stianess.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 23,540 rations were missing

4. #18570 Harvest in Stianess: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	77,490
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	2675

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	110

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Zesbres, at the head of Zailira era 122

1. #18587 Zesbres is set at the head of Zailira.

2. #18472 Lasork dies (hunger, 38 years old).

   Chance that season: 22.35%

3. #18466 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

4. #18465 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	0

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 122

1. #18600 Harvest in Mueness: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1852

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	63

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 122

1. #18601 Famine in Mueness.

   • 44% of what was needed was eaten; 2405 rations were missing

2. #18600 Harvest in Mueness: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1852

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	63

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18607 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	18,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18601	×0.44
  Result	4786

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 122

1. #18603 Harvest in Stianess: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	90,090
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,440

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2160
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	504

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 122

1. #18604 Famine in Stianess.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 17,701 rations were missing

2. #18603 Harvest in Stianess: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	90,090
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	12,440

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2160
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	504

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18609 Season in Stianess: 4 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	124,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18604	×0.42
  Result	31,545

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 122

1. #18605 Harvest in Zailira: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	73,080
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	10,173

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	441

2. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 122

1. #18606 Famine in Zailira.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 14,226 rations were missing

2. #18605 Harvest in Zailira: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	73,080
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	10,173

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	441

3. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #18610 Season in Zailira: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	102,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #18606	×0.43
  Result	26,144

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 122

1. #18617 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	11,970
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   Result	6982

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   Result	262

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Stianess eats its fill again era 122

1. #18619 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	85,680
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.59
   Result	49,296

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2160
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   Result	2101

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Zailira eats its fill again era 122

1. #18620 Harvest in Zailira: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	69,300
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   Result	40,195

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   Result	1575

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Duesdaun founds House Lailskuil era 122

1. #18627 Duesdaun founds House Lailskuil.

2. #18626 Duesdaun, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Zailira had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 321 people leave Llaness for Mueness era 122

1. #18630 321 neighbors move from Llaness to Mueness (crowding).

2. #18618 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	958,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.92
   the soil	×0.79
   Result	696,451

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	58,590
   the weather: cycle	×0.92
   Result	54,060

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Thachoguel decides to ration the grain in Mueness era 122

1. #18631 Thachoguel decides: ration.

   Motive of Thachoguel

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 10,764 · 70.84%
   wait	weight 4430
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: rash	×0.70
   the emotion: fear	×1.71
   the memory: spouse_died from hunger #18474	×1.54

2. #18474 Maslian dies (hunger, 55 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.37%

3. #18461 Famine in Mueness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 9629 rations were missing

4. #18460 Harvest in Mueness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	32,130
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	1124

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #14785	×0.20
   Result	47

5. #14785 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Mendbrark decides to hold a feast in Llaness era 122

1. #18634 Mendbrark decides: feast.

   Motive of Mendbrark

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 4486 · 49.66%
   wait	weight 4546
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the trait: generous	×1.40
   the emotion: sadness	×1.02
   the memory: child_died from hunger #17728	×0.71

2. #17728 Stiandzol dies (hunger, 26 years old).

   Chance that season: 16.44%

3. #17717 Famine in Llaness.

   • 16% of what was needed was eaten; 349,121 rations were missing

4. #17716 Harvest in Llaness: 16% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	944,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #17661	×0.30
   Result	62,249

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	57,780
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #17661	×0.30
   Result	4835

5. #17661 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 123

1. #18642 Harvest in Mueness: 90% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	130,410
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   Result	53,250

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   Result	2206

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Storaunros founds House Chuenlal era 123

1. #18654 Storaunros founds House Chuenlal.

2. #18653 Storaunros, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Zailira had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 123

1. #18669 Harvest in Mueness: 76% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	132,300
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   Result	23,152

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.30
   Result	945

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Luerkskia founds House Laindthau era 123

1. #18679 Luerkskia founds House Laindthau.

2. #18678 Luerkskia, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Marriage arranged between Suithdia and Luerkskia era 123

1. #18684 Suithdia and Luerkskia marry (political).

2. #18682 Mendbrark decides: arrange_marriage.

   Motive of Mendbrark

   arrange a marriage (chosen)	weight 2785 · 39.16%
   wait	weight 4326
   the people's value: community	×1.21
   the people's value: honor	×1.04
   the trait: loyal	×1.10

Root: A decision by Mendbrark, with its motives.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 123

1. #18686 Harvest in Mueness: 90% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	134,190
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   Result	93,932

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×1.20
   Result	4097

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Gochues founds House Thianme era 123

1. #18695 Gochues founds House Thianme.

2. #18694 Gochues, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 123

1. #18704 Harvest in Mueness: 89% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	136,080
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   Result	79,379

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   Result	3414

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Zesbres and Duirklath marry era 123

1. #18713 Zesbres and Duirklath marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #18712 Duirklath, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Zesbres.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 317 people leave Llaness for Stianess era 123

1. #18715 317 neighbors move from Llaness to Stianess (crowding).

2. #18705 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	930,510
   the weather: cycle	×0.92
   the soil	×0.79
   Result	676,304

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	56,970
   the weather: cycle	×0.92
   Result	52,566

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 123

1. #18724 Harvest in Mueness: 90% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	139,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   Result	56,851

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.97
   the season	×0.70
   Result	2389