Chapter 3 · The end of House Dozos

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 49

1. #6905 Harvest in Mueness: 32% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	870

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	62

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 49

1. #6906 Famine in Mueness.

   • 32% of what was needed was eaten; 1903 rations were missing

2. #6905 Harvest in Mueness: 32% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	870

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	62

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #6912 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	9000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6906	×0.33
  Result	1774

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 49

1. #6908 Harvest in Stianess: 53% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	4567

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 49

1. #6909 Famine in Stianess.

   • 53% of what was needed was eaten; 4084 rations were missing

2. #6908 Harvest in Stianess: 53% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	4567

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #6914 Season in Stianess: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	34,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6909	×0.53
  Result	11,064

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 49

1. #6910 Harvest in Zailira: 54% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	371

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 49

1. #6911 Famine in Zailira.

   • 54% of what was needed was eaten; 304 rations were missing

2. #6910 Harvest in Zailira: 54% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	371

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 49

1. #6924 Harvest in Mueness: 29% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1523

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	51

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 49

1. #6925 Famine in Mueness.

   • 29% of what was needed was eaten; 3691 rations were missing

2. #6924 Harvest in Mueness: 29% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1523

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	51

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #6932 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	18,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6925	×0.30
  Result	3228

• #6936 Zendle dies (hunger, 45 years old).

  Chance that season: 11.39%

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 49

1. #6927 Harvest in Stianess: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3806

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 49

1. #6928 Famine in Stianess.

   • 44% of what was needed was eaten; 4866 rations were missing

2. #6927 Harvest in Stianess: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3806

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #6934 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	34,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6928	×0.45
  Result	9219

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 49

1. #6929 Harvest in Zailira: 45% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	309

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 49

1. #6930 Famine in Zailira.

   • 45% of what was needed was eaten; 366 rations were missing

2. #6929 Harvest in Zailira: 45% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	309

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Zendle, of House Dozos, dies of hunger era 49

1. #6936 Zendle dies (hunger, 45 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.39%

2. #6925 Famine in Mueness.

   • 29% of what was needed was eaten; 3691 rations were missing

3. #6924 Harvest in Mueness: 29% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1523

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	51

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brorklland and Thialbra marry era 49

1. #6938 Brorklland and Thialbra marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #6937 Thialbra, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Brorklland.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Dozos dies out era 49

1. #6939 House Dozos dies out.

2. #6936 Zendle dies (hunger, 45 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.39%

3. #6925 Famine in Mueness.

   • 29% of what was needed was eaten; 3691 rations were missing

4. #6924 Harvest in Mueness: 29% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1523

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	51

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 49

1. #6946 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	17,010
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1371

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 49

1. #6947 Famine in Mueness.

   • 22% of what was needed was eaten; 5037 rations were missing

2. #6946 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	17,010
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1371

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #6954 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	24,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6947	×0.22
  Result	3205

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 49

1. #6949 Harvest in Stianess: 31% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	23,940
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2596

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 49

1. #6950 Famine in Stianess.

   • 31% of what was needed was eaten; 5702 rations were missing

2. #6949 Harvest in Stianess: 31% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	23,940
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2596

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #6956 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	33,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6950	×0.32
  Result	6310

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 49

1. #6951 Harvest in Zailira: 32% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	216

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 49

1. #6952 Famine in Zailira.

   • 32% of what was needed was eaten; 459 rations were missing

2. #6951 Harvest in Zailira: 32% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1890
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	216

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #6957 Season in Zailira: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	1500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6952	×0.32
  Result	288

Why? Gasguis founds House Marklial era 49

1. #6959 Gasguis founds House Marklial.

2. #6958 Gasguis, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Mueness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lathziand founds House Lengail era 49

1. #6961 Lathziand founds House Lengail.

2. #6960 Lathziand, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 49

1. #6971 Harvest in Mueness: 9% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	18,900
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	652

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	31

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 49

1. #6972 Famine in Mueness.

   • 9% of what was needed was eaten; 6607 rations were missing

2. #6971 Harvest in Mueness: 9% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	18,900
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	652

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	31

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #6979 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	25,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6972	×0.09
  Result	1432

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 49

1. #6974 Harvest in Stianess: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	19,530
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	907

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	31

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 49

1. #6975 Famine in Stianess.

   • 12% of what was needed was eaten; 6487 rations were missing

2. #6974 Harvest in Stianess: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	19,530
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	907

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	31

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #6981 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	27,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6975	×0.13
  Result	2046

• #6983 Siathska dies (hunger, 7 years old).

  Chance that season: 17.71%

• #6984 Thialbra dies (hunger, 22 years old).

  Chance that season: 17.71%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 49

1. #6976 Harvest in Zailira: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1260
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	61

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 49

1. #6977 Famine in Zailira.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 479 rations were missing

2. #6976 Harvest in Zailira: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1260
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	61

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Siathska, of House Guerkdau, dies of hunger era 49

1. #6983 Siathska dies (hunger, 7 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.71%

2. #6975 Famine in Stianess.

   • 12% of what was needed was eaten; 6487 rations were missing

3. #6974 Harvest in Stianess: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	19,530
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	907

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	31

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thialbra, of House Lorkstark, dies of hunger era 49

1. #6984 Thialbra dies (hunger, 22 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.71%

2. #6975 Famine in Stianess.

   • 12% of what was needed was eaten; 6487 rations were missing

3. #6974 Harvest in Stianess: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	19,530
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	907

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	31

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Guerkdau dies out era 49

1. #6985 House Guerkdau dies out.

2. #6983 Siathska dies (hunger, 7 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.71%

3. #6975 Famine in Stianess.

   • 12% of what was needed was eaten; 6487 rations were missing

4. #6974 Harvest in Stianess: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	19,530
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	907

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	31

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 49

1. #6997 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	20,160
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2785

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 49

1. #6998 Famine in Mueness.

   • 37% of what was needed was eaten; 4921 rations were missing

2. #6997 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	20,160
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2785

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7004 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	28,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #6998	×0.37
  Result	6352

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Llaness era 49

1. #6999 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	258,930
   the weather: cycle	×0.99
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #6989	×0.30
   Result	72,926

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	15,930
   the weather: cycle	×0.99
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #6989	×0.30
   Result	5695

2. #6989 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 49

1. #7000 Harvest in Stianess: 54% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	17,010
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3162

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 49

1. #7001 Famine in Stianess.

   • 54% of what was needed was eaten; 2789 rations were missing

2. #7000 Harvest in Stianess: 54% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	17,010
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3162

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7006 Season in Stianess: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	24,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7001	×0.54
  Result	7788

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 49

1. #7002 Harvest in Zailira: 45% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1260
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	247

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 49

1. #7003 Famine in Zailira.

   • 45% of what was needed was eaten; 293 rations were missing

2. #7002 Harvest in Zailira: 45% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1260
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	247

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 49

1. #7023 Harvest in Mueness: 31% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	26,460
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3046

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 49

1. #7024 Famine in Mueness.

   • 31% of what was needed was eaten; 6706 rations were missing

2. #7023 Harvest in Mueness: 31% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	26,460
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3046

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7031 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	36,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7024	×0.32
  Result	6901

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 49

1. #7026 Harvest in Stianess: 45% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	16,380
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2537

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 49

1. #7027 Famine in Stianess.

   • 45% of what was needed was eaten; 3165 rations were missing

2. #7026 Harvest in Stianess: 45% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	16,380
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2537

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7033 Season in Stianess: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	22,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7027	×0.45
  Result	6138

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 49

1. #7028 Harvest in Zailira: 38% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1260
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	206

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 49

1. #7029 Famine in Zailira.

   • 38% of what was needed was eaten; 334 rations were missing

2. #7028 Harvest in Zailira: 38% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1260
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	206

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brandlleth founds House Tonria era 49

1. #7036 Brandlleth founds House Tonria.

2. #7035 Brandlleth, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Golstan decides to ration the grain in Mueness era 49

1. #7039 Golstan decides: ration.

   Motive of Golstan

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 26,200 · 86.37%
   wait	weight 4133
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: patient	×1.10
   the emotion: fear	×2.00
   the memory: spouse_died from hunger #6218	×1.54

2. #6218 Thechau dies (hunger, 9 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.98%

3. #6207 Famine in Mueness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 4375 rations were missing

4. #6206 Harvest in Mueness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	17,010
   the weather: cycle	×0.95
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2326

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.95
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	184

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 49

1. #7046 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1980

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 49

1. #7047 Famine in Mueness.

   • 22% of what was needed was eaten; 6993 rations were missing

2. #7046 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1980

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7054 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	33,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7047	×0.23
  Result	4490

• #7059 Golstan dies (hunger, 17 years old).

  Chance that season: 14.03%

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 49

1. #7049 Harvest in Stianess: 31% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	15,750
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1708

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 49

1. #7050 Famine in Stianess.

   • 31% of what was needed was eaten; 3791 rations were missing

2. #7049 Harvest in Stianess: 31% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	15,750
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1708

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7056 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	21,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7050	×0.32
  Result	3969

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 49

1. #7051 Harvest in Zailira: 26% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1260
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	144

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 49

1. #7052 Famine in Zailira.

   • 26% of what was needed was eaten; 396 rations were missing

2. #7051 Harvest in Zailira: 26% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	1260
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	144

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7057 Season in Zailira: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	1500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7052	×0.27
  Result	239

Why? Rathstai, of House Ziabruil, dies era 49

1. #7058 Rathstai dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Golstan, head of Mueness, dies era 49

1. #7059 Golstan dies (hunger, 17 years old).

   Chance that season: 14.03%

2. #7047 Famine in Mueness.

   • 22% of what was needed was eaten; 6993 rations were missing

3. #7046 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1980

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Liathta dies out era 49

1. #7060 House Liathta dies out.

2. #7059 Golstan dies (hunger, 17 years old).

   Chance that season: 14.03%

3. #7047 Famine in Mueness.

   • 22% of what was needed was eaten; 6993 rations were missing

4. #7046 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1980

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thendmiath, at the head of Mueness era 49

1. #7062 Thendmiath is set at the head of Mueness.

2. #7059 Golstan dies (hunger, 17 years old).

   Chance that season: 14.03%

3. #7047 Famine in Mueness.

   • 22% of what was needed was eaten; 6993 rations were missing

4. #7046 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1980

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Manra decides to hold a feast in Llaness era 49

1. #7066 Manra decides: feast.

   Motive of Manra

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 5550 · 60.41%
   wait	weight 3636
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the trait: proud	×1.20
   the emotion: joy	×1.03
   the emotion: sadness	×1.02

Root: A decision by Manra, with its motives.

Why? Lalolchas decides to ration the grain in Zailira era 49

1. #7069 Lalolchas decides: ration.

   Motive of Lalolchas

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 4446 · 46.51%
   wait	weight 5112
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: greedy	×1.20
   the trait: rash	×0.70
   the emotion: fear	×2.00
   the memory: spouse_died from hunger #6524	×1.54

2. #6524 Luethruis dies (hunger, 27 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.72%

3. #6518 Famine in Zailira.

   • 12% of what was needed was eaten; 4601 rations were missing

4. #6517 Harvest in Zailira: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	649

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 50

1. #7080 Harvest in Mueness: 9% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	21,420
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	739

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	31

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 50

1. #7081 Famine in Mueness.

   • 9% of what was needed was eaten; 7060 rations were missing

2. #7080 Harvest in Mueness: 9% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	21,420
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	739

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	31

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7088 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	30,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7081	×0.10
  Result	1769

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 50

1. #7083 Harvest in Stianess: 13% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	644

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 50

1. #7084 Famine in Stianess.

   • 13% of what was needed was eaten; 4336 rations were missing

2. #7083 Harvest in Stianess: 13% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	644

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7090 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	19,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7084	×0.13
  Result	1543

• #7092 Lathziand dies (hunger, 37 years old).

  Chance that season: 17.51%

• #7093 Brandlleth dies (hunger, 5 years old).

  Chance that season: 17.51%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 50

1. #7085 Harvest in Zailira: 7% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	630
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	30

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 50

1. #7086 Famine in Zailira.

   • 7% of what was needed was eaten; 375 rations were missing

2. #7085 Harvest in Zailira: 7% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	630
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	30

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7091 Season in Zailira: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	0
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7086	×0.07
  Result	0

Why? Lathziand, of House Lengail, dies of hunger era 50

1. #7092 Lathziand dies (hunger, 37 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.51%

2. #7084 Famine in Stianess.

   • 13% of what was needed was eaten; 4336 rations were missing

3. #7083 Harvest in Stianess: 13% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	644

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brandlleth, of House Tonria, dies of hunger era 50

1. #7093 Brandlleth dies (hunger, 5 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.51%

2. #7084 Famine in Stianess.

   • 13% of what was needed was eaten; 4336 rations were missing

3. #7083 Harvest in Stianess: 13% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	644

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brorklland and Skalzuind marry era 50

1. #7095 Brorklland and Skalzuind marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #7094 Skalzuind, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Brorklland.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Guidau founds House Dellias era 50

1. #7099 Guidau founds House Dellias.

2. #7098 Guidau, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Mueness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Lengail dies out era 50

1. #7100 House Lengail dies out.

2. #7092 Lathziand dies (hunger, 37 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.51%

3. #7084 Famine in Stianess.

   • 13% of what was needed was eaten; 4336 rations were missing

4. #7083 Harvest in Stianess: 13% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	644

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Tonria dies out era 50

1. #7101 House Tonria dies out.

2. #7093 Brandlleth dies (hunger, 5 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.51%

3. #7084 Famine in Stianess.

   • 13% of what was needed was eaten; 4336 rations were missing

4. #7083 Harvest in Stianess: 13% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	13,860
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.81
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	644

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 50

1. #7115 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	16,380
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2263

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 50

1. #7116 Famine in Mueness.

   • 37% of what was needed was eaten; 3958 rations were missing

2. #7115 Harvest in Mueness: 37% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	16,380
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2263

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7123 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	22,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7116	×0.38
  Result	5078

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 50

1. #7118 Harvest in Stianess: 52% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,710
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1931

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	62

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 50

1. #7119 Famine in Stianess.

   • 52% of what was needed was eaten; 1787 rations were missing

2. #7118 Harvest in Stianess: 52% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,710
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1931

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	62

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7125 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	15,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7119	×0.53
  Result	4744

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 50

1. #7120 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 50

1. #7121 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 270 rations were missing

2. #7120 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Ronrue, of House Ziabruil, dies era 50

1. #7127 Ronrue dies (age, 64 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tanbruemai founds House Llaiguind era 50

1. #7129 Tanbruemai founds House Llaiguind.

2. #7128 Tanbruemai, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 50

1. #7137 Harvest in Mueness: 30% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	23,310
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 50

1. #7138 Famine in Mueness.

   • 30% of what was needed was eaten; 6258 rations were missing

2. #7137 Harvest in Mueness: 30% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	23,310
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7145 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	31,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7138	×0.31
  Result	5823

• #7149 Maloth dies (hunger, 41 years old).

  Chance that season: 11.05%

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 50

1. #7140 Harvest in Stianess: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,080
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1514

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	51

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 50

1. #7141 Famine in Stianess.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 2080 rations were missing

2. #7140 Harvest in Stianess: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,080
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1514

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	51

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7147 Season in Stianess: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	13,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7141	×0.43
  Result	3477

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 50

1. #7142 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 50

1. #7143 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 270 rations were missing

2. #7142 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Maloth, of House Skalmias, dies of hunger era 50

1. #7149 Maloth dies (hunger, 41 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.05%

2. #7138 Famine in Mueness.

   • 30% of what was needed was eaten; 6258 rations were missing

3. #7137 Harvest in Mueness: 30% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	23,310
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Gothskueth founds House Liasan era 50

1. #7151 Gothskueth founds House Liasan.

2. #7150 Gothskueth, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thendmiath decides to ration the grain in Mueness era 50

1. #7154 Thendmiath decides: ration.

   Motive of Thendmiath

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 32,816 · 84.77%
   wait	weight 5894
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: greedy	×1.20
   the emotion: fear	×2.00
   the memory: spouse_died from hunger #7149	×1.54

2. #7149 Maloth dies (hunger, 41 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.05%

3. #7138 Famine in Mueness.

   • 30% of what was needed was eaten; 6258 rations were missing

4. #7137 Harvest in Mueness: 30% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	23,310
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	103

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 50

1. #7162 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	25,830
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2082

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 50

1. #7163 Famine in Mueness.

   • 22% of what was needed was eaten; 7566 rations were missing

2. #7162 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	25,830
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2082

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	72

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7170 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	36,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7163	×0.22
  Result	4786

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 50

1. #7165 Harvest in Stianess: 27% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	8820
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	927

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 50

1. #7166 Famine in Stianess.

   • 27% of what was needed was eaten; 2547 rations were missing

2. #7165 Harvest in Stianess: 27% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	8820
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	927

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7172 Season in Stianess: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	12,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7166	×0.27
  Result	1974

• #7174 Skalzuind dies (hunger, 24 years old).

  Chance that season: 12.29%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 50

1. #7167 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 50

1. #7168 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 270 rations were missing

2. #7167 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Skalzuind, of House Lorkstark, dies of hunger era 50

1. #7174 Skalzuind dies (hunger, 24 years old).

   Chance that season: 12.29%

2. #7166 Famine in Stianess.

   • 27% of what was needed was eaten; 2547 rations were missing

3. #7165 Harvest in Stianess: 27% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	8820
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	927

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brorklland and Tholmia marry era 50

1. #7176 Brorklland and Tholmia marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #7175 Tholmia, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Brorklland.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 50

1. #7185 Harvest in Mueness: 9% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	28,350
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	979

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	46

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 50

1. #7186 Famine in Mueness.

   • 9% of what was needed was eaten; 9505 rations were missing

2. #7185 Harvest in Mueness: 9% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	28,350
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	979

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	46

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7192 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	39,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7186	×0.10
  Result	2276

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 50

1. #7188 Harvest in Stianess: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	7560
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	340

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 50

1. #7189 Famine in Stianess.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 2750 rations were missing

2. #7188 Harvest in Stianess: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	7560
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	340

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7194 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	10,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7189	×0.11
  Result	720

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 50

1. #7190 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 50

1. #7191 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 270 rations were missing

2. #7190 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7196 Llorkthare dies (hunger, 32 years old).

  Chance that season: 22.35%

Why? Llorkthare, of House Rothstai, dies of hunger era 50

1. #7196 Llorkthare dies (hunger, 32 years old).

   Chance that season: 22.35%

2. #7191 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 270 rations were missing

3. #7190 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Rothstai dies out era 50

1. #7197 House Rothstai dies out.

2. #7196 Llorkthare dies (hunger, 32 years old).

   Chance that season: 22.35%

3. #7191 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 270 rations were missing

4. #7190 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 50

1. #7207 Harvest in Mueness: 38% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	23,310
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3221

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 50

1. #7208 Famine in Mueness.

   • 38% of what was needed was eaten; 5295 rations were missing

2. #7207 Harvest in Mueness: 38% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	23,310
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3221

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	540
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	124

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7215 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	31,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7208	×0.39
  Result	7316

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 50

1. #7210 Harvest in Stianess: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1127

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	62

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 50

1. #7211 Famine in Stianess.

   • 44% of what was needed was eaten; 1511 rations were missing

2. #7210 Harvest in Stianess: 44% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1127

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	62

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 50

1. #7212 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 50

1. #7213 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #7212 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thendmiath and Cholthauth marry era 50

1. #7220 Thendmiath and Cholthauth marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #7219 Cholthauth, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Thendmiath.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 50

1. #7231 Harvest in Mueness: 31% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	30,870
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3554

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	155

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 50

1. #7232 Famine in Mueness.

   • 31% of what was needed was eaten; 8036 rations were missing

2. #7231 Harvest in Mueness: 31% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	30,870
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	3554

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	155

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7239 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	43,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7232	×0.32
  Result	8239

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 50

1. #7234 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	939

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	51

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 50

1. #7235 Famine in Stianess.

   • 34% of what was needed was eaten; 1845 rations were missing

2. #7234 Harvest in Stianess: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	939

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	51

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7241 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	9000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7235	×0.35
  Result	1885

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 50

1. #7236 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Zailira era 50

1. #7237 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #7236 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 51

1. #7250 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	34,020
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2742

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	108

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 51

1. #7251 Famine in Mueness.

   • 22% of what was needed was eaten; 9840 rations were missing

2. #7250 Harvest in Mueness: 22% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	34,020
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	2742

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	108

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7258 Season in Mueness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	46,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7251	×0.22
  Result	6263

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 51

1. #7253 Harvest in Stianess: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	657

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Stianess era 51

1. #7254 Famine in Stianess.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 2007 rations were missing

2. #7253 Harvest in Stianess: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	657

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7260 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	9000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7254	×0.26
  Result	1385

• #7263 Brorklland dies (hunger, 23 years old).

  Chance that season: 12.94%

• #7264 Gothskueth dies (hunger, 6 years old).

  Chance that season: 12.94%

Why? The bad weather leaves Zailira short of grain era 51

1. #7255 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Zailira era 51

1. #7256 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

2. #7255 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7262 Lalolchas dies (hunger, 34 years old).

  Chance that season: 22.35%

Why? Lalolchas, head of Zailira, dies era 51

1. #7262 Lalolchas dies (hunger, 34 years old).

   Chance that season: 22.35%

2. #7256 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

3. #7255 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brorklland, head of Stianess, dies era 51

1. #7263 Brorklland dies (hunger, 23 years old).

   Chance that season: 12.94%

2. #7254 Famine in Stianess.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 2007 rations were missing

3. #7253 Harvest in Stianess: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	657

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Gothskueth, of House Liasan, dies of hunger era 51

1. #7264 Gothskueth dies (hunger, 6 years old).

   Chance that season: 12.94%

2. #7254 Famine in Stianess.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 2007 rations were missing

3. #7253 Harvest in Stianess: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	657

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

4. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Saustark dies out era 51

1. #7265 House Saustark dies out.

2. #7262 Lalolchas dies (hunger, 34 years old).

   Chance that season: 22.35%

3. #7256 Famine in Zailira.

   • 0% of what was needed was eaten; 135 rations were missing

4. #7255 Harvest in Zailira: 0% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Liasan dies out era 51

1. #7266 House Liasan dies out.

2. #7264 Gothskueth dies (hunger, 6 years old).

   Chance that season: 12.94%

3. #7254 Famine in Stianess.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 2007 rations were missing

4. #7253 Harvest in Stianess: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	657

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tholmia, at the head of Stianess era 51

1. #7268 Tholmia is set at the head of Stianess.

2. #7263 Brorklland dies (hunger, 23 years old).

   Chance that season: 12.94%

3. #7254 Famine in Stianess.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 2007 rations were missing

4. #7253 Harvest in Stianess: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	6300
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	657

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	36

5. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Mueness short of grain era 51

1. #7275 Harvest in Mueness: 9% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	30,870
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1066

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	46

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Mueness era 51

1. #7276 Famine in Mueness.

   • 9% of what was needed was eaten; 10,093 rations were missing

2. #7275 Harvest in Mueness: 9% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	30,870
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.60
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	1066

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	810
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	46

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7282 Season in Mueness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	42,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7276	×0.10
  Result	2499

• #7286 Thendmiath dies (hunger, 43 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.71%

• #7287 Cholthauth dies (hunger, 45 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.71%

Why? The bad weather leaves Stianess short of grain era 51

1. #7278 Harvest in Stianess: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	5670
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	253

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Stianess era 51

1. #7279 Famine in Stianess.

   • 12% of what was needed was eaten; 1892 rations were missing

2. #7278 Harvest in Stianess: 12% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	5670
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	253

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	270
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	15

3. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #7284 Season in Stianess: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	7500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #7279	×0.12
  Result	558

Why? The bad weather strikes the fields of Zailira era 51

1. #7280 Harvest in Zailira: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	0
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #5047	×0.20
   Result	0

2. #5047 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.