Chapter 1 · The first Methllerk

Why? 180 Hesari take a name as a people: the Methllerk era 1

1. #97 The Hesari become a people: the Methllerk.

2. #93 A species appears: Hesari.

3. #89 Order community-0001 (create_species) is applied, asked for by Maraval.

Root: An order from the community: Maraval asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #90 The laws change what was asked (create_species) before applying it.

  • Law of lineage (mind_needs_years): the laws changed it — mind sapient; asked long; granted generational
  • Law of price (over_budget): the laws charged a price for what was asked — excess over what a god gives free 7; in exchange: would eat more than anyone their size, would breed slowly, would not withstand a drought, would be fragile, would hunt badly

Why? Lollork founds House Thomue era 1

1. #99 Lollork founds House Thomue.

2. #97 The Hesari become a people: the Methllerk.

3. #93 A species appears: Hesari.

4. #89 Order community-0001 (create_species) is applied, asked for by Maraval.

Root: An order from the community: Maraval asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #90 The laws change what was asked (create_species) before applying it.

  • Law of lineage (mind_needs_years): the laws changed it — mind sapient; asked long; granted generational
  • Law of price (over_budget): the laws charged a price for what was asked — excess over what a god gives free 7; in exchange: would eat more than anyone their size, would breed slowly, would not withstand a drought, would be fragile, would hunt badly

Why? Stasrasdal founds House Rasllia era 1

1. #100 Stasrasdal founds House Rasllia.

2. #97 The Hesari become a people: the Methllerk.

3. #93 A species appears: Hesari.

4. #89 Order community-0001 (create_species) is applied, asked for by Maraval.

Root: An order from the community: Maraval asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #90 The laws change what was asked (create_species) before applying it.

  • Law of lineage (mind_needs_years): the laws changed it — mind sapient; asked long; granted generational
  • Law of price (over_budget): the laws charged a price for what was asked — excess over what a god gives free 7; in exchange: would eat more than anyone their size, would breed slowly, would not withstand a drought, would be fragile, would hunt badly

Why? Masa founds House Giasrial era 1

1. #101 Masa founds House Giasrial.

2. #97 The Hesari become a people: the Methllerk.

3. #93 A species appears: Hesari.

4. #89 Order community-0001 (create_species) is applied, asked for by Maraval.

Root: An order from the community: Maraval asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #90 The laws change what was asked (create_species) before applying it.

  • Law of lineage (mind_needs_years): the laws changed it — mind sapient; asked long; granted generational
  • Law of price (over_budget): the laws charged a price for what was asked — excess over what a god gives free 7; in exchange: would eat more than anyone their size, would breed slowly, would not withstand a drought, would be fragile, would hunt badly

Why? Thuemond founds House Lliagail era 1

1. #102 Thuemond founds House Lliagail.

2. #97 The Hesari become a people: the Methllerk.

3. #93 A species appears: Hesari.

4. #89 Order community-0001 (create_species) is applied, asked for by Maraval.

Root: An order from the community: Maraval asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #90 The laws change what was asked (create_species) before applying it.

  • Law of lineage (mind_needs_years): the laws changed it — mind sapient; asked long; granted generational
  • Law of price (over_budget): the laws charged a price for what was asked — excess over what a god gives free 7; in exchange: would eat more than anyone their size, would breed slowly, would not withstand a drought, would be fragile, would hunt badly

Why? Tuelsue, of House Giasrial, first ruler of the Methllerk era 1

1. #103 Tuelsue takes the seat of the Methllerk.

2. #97 The Hesari become a people: the Methllerk.

3. #93 A species appears: Hesari.

4. #89 Order community-0001 (create_species) is applied, asked for by Maraval.

Root: An order from the community: Maraval asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #90 The laws change what was asked (create_species) before applying it.

  • Law of lineage (mind_needs_years): the laws changed it — mind sapient; asked long; granted generational
  • Law of price (over_budget): the laws charged a price for what was asked — excess over what a god gives free 7; in exchange: would eat more than anyone their size, would breed slowly, would not withstand a drought, would be fragile, would hunt badly

Why? Tiandskath and Stiarkllue marry era 1

1. #143 Tiandskath and Stiarkllue marry (love).

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lollork, of House Thomue, dies era 1

1. #157 Lollork dies (age, 64 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Masa, of House Giasrial, dies era 1

1. #252 Masa dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Mueness era 2

1. #271 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	41,580
   the soil	×0.86
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	12,823

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	8910
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	3207

2. #265 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought leaves Mueness short of grain era 2

1. #281 Harvest in Mueness: 59% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,840
   the soil	×0.86
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	11,010

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	9180
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	2754

2. #265 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 2

1. #282 Famine in Mueness.

   • 59% of what was needed was eaten; 10,788 rations were missing

2. #281 Harvest in Mueness: 59% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,840
   the soil	×0.86
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	11,010

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	9180
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	2754

3. #265 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #284 Season in Mueness: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	84,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #282	×0.59
  Result	29,741

Why? Stasrasdal, of House Rasllia, dies era 2

1. #285 Stasrasdal dies (age, 67 years old).

   Chance that season: 14.76%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thuemond, of House Lliagail, dies era 2

1. #286 Thuemond dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.56%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tuelsue decides to found a new settlement era 2

1. #291 Tuelsue decides: found_settlement.

   Motive of Tuelsue

   found a new settlement (chosen)	weight 6843 · 63.43%
   wait	weight 3945
   the people's value: strength	×1.06
   the trait: ambitious	×1.40
   the emotion: fear	×0.84
   the emotion: hope	×0.87
   the memory: famine #282	×1.05

2. #282 Famine in Mueness.

   • 59% of what was needed was eaten; 10,788 rations were missing

3. #281 Harvest in Mueness: 59% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,840
   the soil	×0.86
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	11,010

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	9180
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	2754

4. #265 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lluisgue founds Llaness with 51 settlers from Mueness era 2

1. #293 Llaness is founded from Mueness.

2. #291 Tuelsue decides: found_settlement.

   Motive of Tuelsue

   found a new settlement (chosen)	weight 6843 · 63.43%
   wait	weight 3945
   the people's value: strength	×1.06
   the trait: ambitious	×1.40
   the emotion: fear	×0.84
   the emotion: hope	×0.87
   the memory: famine #282	×1.05

3. #282 Famine in Mueness.

   • 59% of what was needed was eaten; 10,788 rations were missing

4. #281 Harvest in Mueness: 59% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,840
   the soil	×0.86
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	11,010

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	9180
   the drought #265	×0.30
   Result	2754

5. #265 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 2

1. #303 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	30,870
   the soil	×0.86
   the season	×0.70
   Result	18,512

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	6750
   the season	×0.70
   Result	4725

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Mueness era 2

1. #315 Harvest in Mueness: 73% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	32,130
   the soil	×0.86
   the season	×0.30
   Result	8257

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	6750
   the season	×0.30
   Result	2025

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 2

1. #316 Harvest in Llaness: 70% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	11,970
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	2828

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the season	×0.30
   Result	810

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Mueness eats its fill again era 2

1. #329 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	32,130
   the soil	×0.86
   the season	×1.20
   Result	33,030

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	7020
   the season	×1.20
   Result	8424

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 2

1. #330 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	11,970
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	11,314

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the season	×1.20
   Result	3240

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Skiases founds House Briathlaus era 2

1. #334 Skiases founds House Briathlaus.

2. #333 Skiases, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Llaness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Llaness era 2

1. #346 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	11,970
   the soil	×0.79
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	2828

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	810

2. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Mausllon, of House Lliagail, dies era 2

1. #349 Mausllon dies (accident, 36 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Llendlo founds House Gonskaurk era 2

1. #351 Llendlo founds House Gonskaurk.

2. #350 Llendlo, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Llaness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 5 people leave Llaness for Mueness era 2

1. #354 5 neighbors move from Llaness to Mueness (crowding).

2. #346 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	11,970
   the soil	×0.79
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	2828

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	810

3. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Marriage arranged between Chuenchui and Llendlo era 2

1. #357 Chuenchui and Llendlo marry (political).

2. #355 Tuelsue decides: arrange_marriage.

   Motive of Tuelsue

   arrange a marriage (chosen)	weight 2279 · 38.20%
   wait	weight 3686
   the people's value: community	×1.21
   the people's value: honor	×1.04
   the trait: fickle	×0.90

Root: A decision by Tuelsue, with its motives.

Why? The drought leaves Llaness short of grain era 3

1. #368 Harvest in Llaness: 84% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,710
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	1771

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	510

2. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Bruendbrol founds House Muirkmiark era 3

1. #372 Bruendbrol founds House Muirkmiark.

2. #371 Bruendbrol, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Llaness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought leaves Llaness short of grain era 3

1. #378 Harvest in Llaness: 14% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,710
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	759

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	218

2. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 3

1. #379 Famine in Llaness.

   • 14% of what was needed was eaten; 5773 rations were missing

2. #378 Harvest in Llaness: 14% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,710
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	759

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	218

3. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #381 Season in Llaness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	21,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #379	×0.14
  Result	1823

• #382 Lluisgue dies (hunger, 17 years old).

  Chance that season: 17.04%

Why? Lluisgue, head of Llaness, dies era 3

1. #382 Lluisgue dies (hunger, 17 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.04%

2. #379 Famine in Llaness.

   • 14% of what was needed was eaten; 5773 rations were missing

3. #378 Harvest in Llaness: 14% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,710
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	759

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	218

4. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tuelsue, at the head of Llaness era 3

1. #387 Tuelsue is set at the head of Llaness.

2. #382 Lluisgue dies (hunger, 17 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.04%

3. #379 Famine in Llaness.

   • 14% of what was needed was eaten; 5773 rations were missing

4. #378 Harvest in Llaness: 14% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,710
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	759

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	218

5. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought leaves Llaness short of grain era 3

1. #393 Harvest in Llaness: 61% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	8190
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	2322

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	680

2. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tuelsue decides to build a granary in Mueness era 3

1. #396 Tuelsue decides: build_granary.

   Motive of Tuelsue

   build a granary (chosen)	weight 4592 · 40.43%
   wait	weight 5447
   hold a feast	weight 1318
   the emotion: fear	×1.11
   the memory: famine #379	×1.18

2. #379 Famine in Llaness.

   • 14% of what was needed was eaten; 5773 rations were missing

3. #378 Harvest in Llaness: 14% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,710
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	759

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	218

4. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 3

1. #402 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	8820
   the soil	×0.79
   Result	6947

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1890
   Result	1890

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Thegueth and Losde marry era 3

1. #406 Thegueth and Losde marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #405 Losde, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Thegueth.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tuelsue and Lerkllath marry era 4

1. #454 Tuelsue and Lerkllath marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #453 Lerkllath, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Tuelsue.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tuelsue decides to build a granary in Llaness era 4

1. #459 Tuelsue decides: build_granary.

   Motive of Tuelsue

   build a granary (chosen)	weight 3840 · 49.58%
   wait	weight 3905
   the emotion: fear	×1.02
   the memory: famine #379	×1.08

2. #379 Famine in Llaness.

   • 14% of what was needed was eaten; 5773 rations were missing

3. #378 Harvest in Llaness: 14% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	10,710
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	759

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2430
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #340	×0.30
   Result	218

4. #340 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 8 people leave Mueness for Llaness era 4

1. #498 8 neighbors move from Mueness to Llaness (crowding).

2. #494 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	44,730
   the soil	×0.86
   Result	38,320

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	9450
   Result	9450

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Mueness era 5

1. #546 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	47,250
   the soil	×0.86
   the drought #544	×0.30
   Result	12,143

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	9990
   the drought #544	×0.30
   Result	2997

2. #544 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lerkllath, of House Giasrial, dies era 6

1. #676 Lerkllath dies (age, 63 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 5 people leave Mueness for Llaness era 6

1. #677 5 neighbors move from Mueness to Llaness (crowding).

2. #671 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	52,920
   the soil	×0.86
   the season	×0.70
   Result	31,735

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	7560
   the season	×0.70
   Result	5292

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Tuelsue decides to build a granary in Mueness era 6

1. #733 Tuelsue decides: build_granary.

   Motive of Tuelsue

   build a granary (chosen)	weight 3500 · 31.17%
   wait	weight 4377
   raise houses	weight 3351

Root: A decision by Tuelsue, with its motives.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Llaness era 7

1. #856 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	22,680
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #842	×0.30
   Result	6497

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #842	×0.30
   Result	589

2. #842 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Taulstian, of House Thomue, dies era 7

1. #859 Taulstian dies (age, 63 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought leaves Llaness short of grain era 8

1. #873 Harvest in Llaness: 94% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	23,310
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the drought #842	×0.30
   Result	5564

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the drought #842	×0.30
   Result	490

2. #842 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 8

1. #888 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	24,570
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   Result	13,685

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.70
   Result	1145

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? The harvest falls short in Llaness era 8

1. #901 Harvest in Llaness: 54% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	25,200
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	6015

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.30
   Result	490

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 8

1. #902 Famine in Llaness.

   • 54% of what was needed was eaten; 6258 rations were missing

2. #901 Harvest in Llaness: 54% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	25,200
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   Result	6015

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.30
   Result	490

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Evidence

• #904 Season in Llaness: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	49,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #902	×0.55
  Result	16,201

Why? Llaness eats its fill again era 8

1. #919 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	25,200
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   Result	24,063

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	1620
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×1.20
   Result	1963

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Lueleth, of House Thomue, dies era 8

1. #923 Lueleth dies (accident, 15 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tuelsue, ruler of the Methllerk, dies era 8

1. #934 Tuelsue dies (age, 67 years old).

   Chance that season: 14.40%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 4 claimants to the seat of Tuelsue era 8

1. #935 The succession opens.

   • Thegueth: 14 supporters (ties 126, own house 60, command 784, prestige 630, kinship 280)
   • Tiandskath: 6 supporters (ties 256, own house 60, command 192, prestige 270, kinship 120)
   • Chosuizan: 5 supporters (ties 266, own house 150, command 320, prestige 30)
   • Brausthaus: 1 supporters (ties 100, own house 30, command 64, prestige 6)

2. #934 Tuelsue dies (age, 67 years old).

   Chance that season: 14.40%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thegueth succeeds Tuelsue era 8

1. #936 The succession is settled in favor of Thegueth.

   • Thegueth: 14 supporters (ties 126, own house 60, command 784, prestige 630, kinship 280)
   • Tiandskath: 6 supporters (ties 256, own house 60, command 192, prestige 270, kinship 120)
   • Chosuizan: 5 supporters (ties 266, own house 150, command 320, prestige 30)
   • Brausthaus: 1 supporters (ties 100, own house 30, command 64, prestige 6)
   • The leader's margin: 3076 ‱ of the total support

2. #935 The succession opens.

   • Thegueth: 14 supporters (ties 126, own house 60, command 784, prestige 630, kinship 280)
   • Tiandskath: 6 supporters (ties 256, own house 60, command 192, prestige 270, kinship 120)
   • Chosuizan: 5 supporters (ties 266, own house 150, command 320, prestige 30)
   • Brausthaus: 1 supporters (ties 100, own house 30, command 64, prestige 6)

3. #934 Tuelsue dies (age, 67 years old).

   Chance that season: 14.40%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #937 The laws accept take_office as it was asked.

• #938 Thegueth is set at the head of Llaness.

• #939 Thegueth takes the seat of the Methllerk.

Why? Tiandskath, at the head of Mueness era 8

1. #941 Tiandskath is set at the head of Mueness.

2. #934 Tuelsue dies (age, 67 years old).

   Chance that season: 14.40%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thegueth and Llathlon, at odds era 8

1. #942 Thegueth and Llathlon: from none to rival.

   • Regard between the two: -82

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Zandrel, of House Muirkmiark, dies era 8

1. #952 Zandrel dies (age, 63 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Raurkdaurk and Stiarkllue, at odds era 8

1. #953 Raurkdaurk and Stiarkllue: from none to rival.

   • Regard between the two: -60

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Tiandskath decides to build a granary in Mueness era 9

1. #1006 Tiandskath decides: build_granary.

   Motive of Tiandskath

   build a granary (chosen)	weight 4200 · 28.34%
   wait	weight 5544
   raise houses	weight 5075
   the trait: patient	×1.20

Root: A decision by Tiandskath, with its motives.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Llaness era 9

1. #1017 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	28,980
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the drought #1013	×0.30
   Result	6918

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2160
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the drought #1013	×0.30
   Result	654

2. #1013 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Saimuemand, of House Rasllia, dies era 9

1. #1022 Saimuemand dies (age, 64 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? tidewright blesses the harvest of Llaness era 10

1. #1096 tidewright acts: “May the harvest of Llaness be so great that it will not fit in its granaries”.

   • What the world did: factor 15,000

2. #1094 Order community-0002 (bless_harvest) is applied, asked for by tidewright.

Root: An order from the community: tidewright asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #1095 The laws change what was asked (bless_harvest) before applying it.

  • Law of proportion (blessing_too_great): no god can make the land give more than half again what it gives; it was a good harvest, not one to burst the granaries — asked 30,000; granted 15,000

Why? The blessing of tidewright fills the granaries of Llaness era 10

1. #1100 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	32,130
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the blessing of tidewright #1096	×1.50
   Result	11,505

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2160
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.30
   Result	654

2. #1096 tidewright acts: “May the harvest of Llaness be so great that it will not fit in its granaries”.

   • What the world did: factor 15,000

3. #1094 Order community-0002 (bless_harvest) is applied, asked for by tidewright.

Root: An order from the community: tidewright asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #1095 The laws change what was asked (bless_harvest) before applying it.

  • Law of proportion (blessing_too_great): no god can make the land give more than half again what it gives; it was a good harvest, not one to burst the granaries — asked 30,000; granted 15,000

Why? Thegueth decides to build a granary in Llaness era 10

1. #1128 Thegueth decides: build_granary.

   Motive of Thegueth

   build a granary (chosen)	weight 4550 · 47.89%
   wait	weight 4950
   the trait: cautious	×1.30

Root: A decision by Thegueth, with its motives.

Why? Stiarkllue, of House Lliagail, dies era 10

1. #1191 Stiarkllue dies (accident, 20 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tiandskath and Stondas marry era 11

1. #1228 Tiandskath and Stondas marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #1227 Stondas, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Tiandskath.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Bruendbrol, of House Muirkmiark, dies era 11

1. #1285 Bruendbrol dies (age, 69 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Muirkmiark dies out era 11

1. #1286 House Muirkmiark dies out.

2. #1285 Bruendbrol dies (age, 69 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thegueth decides to build a granary in Llaness era 11

1. #1329 Thegueth decides: build_granary.

   Motive of Thegueth

   build a granary (chosen)	weight 4550 · 47.89%
   wait	weight 4950
   the trait: cautious	×1.30

Root: A decision by Thegueth, with its motives.

Why? Llendlo, of House Gonskaurk, dies era 12

1. #1399 Llendlo dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Gonskaurk dies out era 12

1. #1400 House Gonskaurk dies out.

2. #1399 Llendlo dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chuenchui, of House Lliagail, dies era 13

1. #1508 Chuenchui dies (age, 64 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Lliagail dies out era 13

1. #1509 House Lliagail dies out.

2. #1508 Chuenchui dies (age, 64 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Sialsal and Brausthaus, at odds era 17

1. #1826 Sialsal and Brausthaus: from none to rival.

   • Regard between the two: -60

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Thegueth decides to found a new settlement era 17

1. #1840 Thegueth decides: found_settlement.

   Motive of Thegueth

   found a new settlement (chosen)	weight 7449 · 60.07%
   wait	weight 4950
   the people's value: strength	×1.06
   the trait: cautious	×0.70

2. #1829 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	151,200
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.80
   Result	119,032

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	10,800
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   Result	10,623

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Chosuizan founds Stianess with 142 settlers from Mueness era 17

1. #1842 Stianess is founded from Mueness.

2. #1840 Thegueth decides: found_settlement.

   Motive of Thegueth

   found a new settlement (chosen)	weight 7449 · 60.07%
   wait	weight 4950
   the people's value: strength	×1.06
   the trait: cautious	×0.70

3. #1829 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	151,200
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.80
   Result	119,032

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	10,800
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   Result	10,623

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? 27 people leave Llaness for Mueness era 17

1. #1856 27 neighbors move from Llaness to Mueness (crowding).

2. #1849 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	74,970
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   Result	41,651

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	5400
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.70
   Result	3808

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? 14 people leave Stianess for Mueness era 17

1. #1857 14 neighbors move from Stianess to Mueness (crowding).

2. #1850 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	39,690
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   Result	23,096

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	8370
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   Result	5763

Root: The turning of the seasons: what the world does every season, with its numbers.

Why? Brethbruin founds House Stabrueth era 17

1. #1877 Brethbruin founds House Stabrueth.

2. #1876 Brethbruin, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Skiases, of House Briathlaus, dies era 18

1. #1914 Skiases dies (age, 64 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tuelsten founds House Luensial era 18

1. #1916 Tuelsten founds House Luensial.

2. #1915 Tuelsten, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Llaness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Llathlon, of House Briathlaus, dies era 18

1. #1948 Llathlon dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Briathlaus dies out era 18

1. #1949 House Briathlaus dies out.

2. #1948 Llathlon dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Zaudan founds House Sesmui era 18

1. #1968 Zaudan founds House Sesmui.

2. #1967 Zaudan, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Stianess had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Gaisda, of House Luensial, dies era 18

1. #2064 Gaisda dies (age, 63 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Markstos founds House Tolchaus era 18

1. #2068 Markstos founds House Tolchaus.

2. #2067 Markstos, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Llaness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Skanmue, of House Rasllia, dies era 19

1. #2090 Skanmue dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brausthaus, of House Rasllia, dies era 19

1. #2127 Brausthaus dies (accident, 34 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lletasruil, of House Stabrueth, dies era 19

1. #2145 Lletasruil dies (age, 64 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Llaness era 19

1. #2156 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	86,310
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #2150	×0.30
   Result	14,030

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	6210
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #2150	×0.30
   Result	1281

2. #2150 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Oskel_77 sends drought upon Llaness era 20

1. #2215 Oskel_77 acts: “Let drought fall on the whole island for ten years”.

   • What the world did: kind drought, seasons 1, region 18

2. #2213 Order community-0003 (send_weather) is applied, asked for by Oskel_77.

Root: An order from the community: Oskel_77 asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #2214 The laws change what was asked (send_weather) before applying it.

  • Law of proportion (weather_too_wide): the laws grant a god no more than one season and one region; the drought fell only on the region, and only for a season — scope asked world; seasons asked 40; seasons granted 1

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Llaness era 20

1. #2223 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	91,350
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the drought #2216	×0.30
   Result	21,213

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	6480
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the drought #2216	×0.30
   Result	1910

2. #2216 A weather episode begins: drought.

3. #2213 Order community-0003 (send_weather) is applied, asked for by Oskel_77.

Root: An order from the community: Oskel_77 asked for it, and it passed through the laws.

Evidence

• #2214 The laws change what was asked (send_weather) before applying it.

  • Law of proportion (weather_too_wide): the laws grant a god no more than one season and one region; the drought fell only on the region, and only for a season — scope asked world; seasons asked 40; seasons granted 1

Why? Zaltacho, of House Luensial, dies era 20

1. #2230 Zaltacho dies (age, 64 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Mueness era 20

1. #2280 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	177,030
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.78
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #2269	×0.30
   Result	47,316

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	12,690
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #2269	×0.30
   Result	4374

2. #2269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Stianess era 20

1. #2282 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	48,510
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #2269	×0.30
   Result	14,131

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	10,260
   the weather: cycle	×0.96
   the season	×1.20
   the drought #2269	×0.30
   Result	3536

2. #2269 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Brethbruin, of House Stabrueth, dies era 20

1. #2318 Brethbruin dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Stabrueth dies out era 20

1. #2319 House Stabrueth dies out.

2. #2318 Brethbruin dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Sialsal, of House Rasllia, dies era 21

1. #2350 Sialsal dies (age, 69 years old).

   Chance that season: 17.60%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Stondas, of House Giasrial, dies era 21

1. #2351 Stondas dies (accident, 38 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tuelsten, of House Luensial, dies era 21

1. #2405 Tuelsten dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Luensial dies out era 21

1. #2406 House Luensial dies out.

2. #2405 Tuelsten dies (age, 65 years old).

   Chance that season: 11.20%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather strikes the fields of Llaness era 21

1. #2431 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	110,250
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	17,068

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	7830
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1538

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather strikes the fields of Llaness era 21

1. #2445 Harvest in Llaness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	111,510
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	12,084

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	8100
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1114

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 22

1. #2463 Harvest in Llaness: 61% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	112,770
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	5237

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	8100
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	477

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 22

1. #2480 Harvest in Llaness: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	115,290
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	21,418

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	8100
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1910

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 22

1. #2481 Famine in Llaness.

   • 41% of what was needed was eaten; 32,832 rations were missing

2. #2480 Harvest in Llaness: 41% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	115,290
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	21,418

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	8100
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1910

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2485 Season in Llaness: 4 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	228,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  overcrowding	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2481	×0.42
  Result	34,087

Why? Doruind, of House Thomue, dies era 22

1. #2487 Doruind dies (age, 63 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tiandskath decides to hold a feast in Mueness era 22

1. #2488 Tiandskath decides: feast.

   Motive of Tiandskath

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 3391 · 39.80%
   wait	weight 5128
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the emotion: joy	×0.97
   the emotion: sadness	×0.98
   the memory: spouse_died from accident #1191	×0.82

2. #1191 Stiarkllue dies (accident, 20 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 22

1. #2494 Harvest in Llaness: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	108,990
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	16,873

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	7830
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1538

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Llaness era 22

1. #2495 Famine in Llaness.

   • 34% of what was needed was eaten; 34,239 rations were missing

2. #2494 Harvest in Llaness: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	108,990
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	16,873

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	7830
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1538

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2499 Season in Llaness: 5 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	216,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2495	×0.35
  Result	45,308

• #2501 Skuethska dies (hunger, 22 years old).

  Chance that season: 9.53%

Why? Skuethska, of House Tolchaus, dies of hunger era 22

1. #2501 Skuethska dies (hunger, 22 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.53%

2. #2495 Famine in Llaness.

   • 34% of what was needed was eaten; 34,239 rations were missing

3. #2494 Harvest in Llaness: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	108,990
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	16,873

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	7830
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1538

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Tiandskath decides to hold a feast in Mueness era 22

1. #2502 Tiandskath decides: feast.

   Motive of Tiandskath

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 4212 · 47.83%
   wait	weight 4593
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the emotion: joy	×1.12
   the emotion: sadness	×1.05
   the memory: spouse_died from accident #1191	×0.82

2. #1191 Stiarkllue dies (accident, 20 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thegueth decides to ration the grain in Llaness era 22

1. #2505 Thegueth decides: ration.

   Motive of Thegueth

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 15,822 · 69.37%
   wait	weight 3982
   send more hands to the fields	weight 3002
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: cautious	×1.30
   the trait: greedy	×1.20
   the emotion: fear	×1.42
   the memory: famine #2495	×1.25

2. #2495 Famine in Llaness.

   • 34% of what was needed was eaten; 34,239 rations were missing

3. #2494 Harvest in Llaness: 34% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	108,990
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	16,873

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	7830
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1538

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 22

1. #2522 Harvest in Llaness: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	100,170
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,855

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	7290
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1002

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 22

1. #2523 Famine in Llaness.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 36,338 rations were missing

2. #2522 Harvest in Llaness: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	100,170
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,855

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	7290
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1002

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2528 Season in Llaness: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	198,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2523	×0.25
  Result	29,224

Why? Duilskuin founds House Ruegaus era 22

1. #2531 Duilskuin founds House Ruegaus.

2. #2530 Duilskuin, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Llaness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 22

1. #2546 Harvest in Llaness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	88,200
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	4096

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	6210
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	366

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Llaness era 22

1. #2547 Famine in Llaness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 37,658 rations were missing

2. #2546 Harvest in Llaness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	88,200
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	4096

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	6210
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	366

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2552 Season in Llaness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	174,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2547	×0.11
  Result	11,055

Why? Raurkdaurk, of House Thomue, dies era 22

1. #2554 Raurkdaurk dies (age, 63 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 22

1. #2578 Harvest in Llaness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	71,820
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	13,342

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	5130
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1209

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 22

1. #2579 Famine in Llaness.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 19,739 rations were missing

2. #2578 Harvest in Llaness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	71,820
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	13,342

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	5130
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1209

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2584 Season in Llaness: 4 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	142,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2579	×0.42
  Result	36,277

• #2586 Markstos dies (hunger, 22 years old).

  Chance that season: 6.79%

Why? Markstos, of House Tolchaus, dies of hunger era 22

1. #2586 Markstos dies (hunger, 22 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.79%

2. #2579 Famine in Llaness.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 19,739 rations were missing

3. #2578 Harvest in Llaness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	71,820
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	13,342

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	5130
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1209

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chosuizan decides to build a granary in Stianess era 22

1. #2587 Chosuizan decides: build_granary.

   Motive of Chosuizan

   build a granary (chosen)	weight 3500 · 20.24%
   wait	weight 4500
   raise houses	weight 4978
   hold a feast	weight 4307

Root: A decision by Chosuizan, with its motives.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 22

1. #2599 Harvest in Llaness: 35% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	68,040
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,533

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4860
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	955

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Llaness era 22

1. #2600 Famine in Llaness.

   • 35% of what was needed was eaten; 20,777 rations were missing

2. #2599 Harvest in Llaness: 35% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	68,040
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,533

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4860
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	955

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2605 Season in Llaness: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	135,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2600	×0.36
  Result	28,836

• #2607 Duilskuin dies (hunger, 6 years old).

  Chance that season: 9.29%

Why? Duilskuin, of House Ruegaus, dies of hunger era 22

1. #2607 Duilskuin dies (hunger, 6 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.29%

2. #2600 Famine in Llaness.

   • 35% of what was needed was eaten; 20,777 rations were missing

3. #2599 Harvest in Llaness: 35% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	68,040
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,533

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4860
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	955

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thegueth decides to ration the grain in Llaness era 22

1. #2608 Thegueth decides: ration.

   Motive of Thegueth

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 17,500 · 78.02%
   wait	weight 4929
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the trait: cautious	×1.30
   the trait: greedy	×1.20
   the emotion: fear	×1.79
   the memory: famine #2600	×1.25

2. #2600 Famine in Llaness.

   • 35% of what was needed was eaten; 20,777 rations were missing

3. #2599 Harvest in Llaness: 35% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	68,040
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,533

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4860
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	955

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 23

1. #2628 Harvest in Llaness: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	91,350
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9899

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	6480
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	891

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 23

1. #2629 Famine in Llaness.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 32,410 rations were missing

2. #2628 Harvest in Llaness: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	91,350
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9899

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	6480
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	891

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2633 Season in Llaness: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	180,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2629	×0.25
  Result	26,967

• #2635 Losde dies (hunger, 39 years old).

  Chance that season: 13.19%

Why? Losde, of House Giasrial, dies of hunger era 23

1. #2635 Losde dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 13.19%

2. #2629 Famine in Llaness.

   • 24% of what was needed was eaten; 32,410 rations were missing

3. #2628 Harvest in Llaness: 24% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	91,350
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9899

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	6480
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	891

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thegueth and Ganmand marry era 23

1. #2637 Thegueth and Ganmand marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #2636 Ganmand, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Thegueth.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 23

1. #2649 Harvest in Llaness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	80,010
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	3716

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	5670
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	334

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Llaness era 23

1. #2650 Famine in Llaness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 33,615 rations were missing

2. #2649 Harvest in Llaness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	80,010
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	3716

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	5670
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	334

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2654 Season in Llaness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	159,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2650	×0.11
  Result	10,255

• #2656 Ganmand dies (hunger, 40 years old).

  Chance that season: 18.40%

Why? Ganmand, of House Giasrial, dies of hunger era 23

1. #2656 Ganmand dies (hunger, 40 years old).

   Chance that season: 18.40%

2. #2650 Famine in Llaness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 33,615 rations were missing

3. #2649 Harvest in Llaness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	80,010
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	3716

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	5670
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	334

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Thegueth and Lainchon marry era 23

1. #2658 Thegueth and Lainchon marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #2657 Lainchon, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Thegueth.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 23

1. #2671 Harvest in Llaness: 43% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	66,150
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	12,289

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4860
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1146

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 23

1. #2672 Famine in Llaness.

   • 43% of what was needed was eaten; 17,480 rations were missing

2. #2671 Harvest in Llaness: 43% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	66,150
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	12,289

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4860
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1146

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2676 Season in Llaness: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	130,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2672	×0.43
  Result	34,021

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 23

1. #2687 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	62,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9655

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4590
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	902

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Llaness era 23

1. #2688 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 18,603 rations were missing

2. #2687 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	62,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9655

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4590
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	902

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2693 Season in Llaness: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	123,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2688	×0.36
  Result	26,715

• #2695 Thegueth dies (hunger, 39 years old).

  Chance that season: 9.07%

Why? Thegueth, ruler of the Methllerk, dies era 23

1. #2695 Thegueth dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.07%

2. #2688 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 18,603 rations were missing

3. #2687 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	62,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9655

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4590
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	902

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? 4 claimants to the seat of Thegueth era 23

1. #2696 The succession opens.

   • Lainchon: 15 supporters (ties 70, own house 30, command 840, prestige 2010, kinship 300)
   • Tiandskath: 2 supporters (ties 200, own house 60, command 64, prestige 268, kinship 40)
   • Chosuizan: 1 supporters (ties 100, own house 30, command 64, prestige 16)
   • Sauslas: 0 supporters ()

2. #2695 Thegueth dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.07%

3. #2688 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 18,603 rations were missing

4. #2687 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	62,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9655

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4590
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	902

5. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lainchon succeeds Thegueth era 23

1. #2697 The succession is settled in favor of Lainchon.

   • Lainchon: 15 supporters (ties 70, own house 30, command 840, prestige 2010, kinship 300)
   • Tiandskath: 2 supporters (ties 200, own house 60, command 64, prestige 268, kinship 40)
   • Chosuizan: 1 supporters (ties 100, own house 30, command 64, prestige 16)
   • Sauslas: 0 supporters ()
   • The leader's margin: 7222 ‱ of the total support

2. #2696 The succession opens.

   • Lainchon: 15 supporters (ties 70, own house 30, command 840, prestige 2010, kinship 300)
   • Tiandskath: 2 supporters (ties 200, own house 60, command 64, prestige 268, kinship 40)
   • Chosuizan: 1 supporters (ties 100, own house 30, command 64, prestige 16)
   • Sauslas: 0 supporters ()

3. #2695 Thegueth dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.07%

4. #2688 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 18,603 rations were missing

5. #2687 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	62,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9655

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4590
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	902

6. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2698 The laws accept take_office as it was asked.

• #2699 Lainchon is set at the head of Llaness.

• #2700 Lainchon takes the seat of the Methllerk.

Why? Tiandskath decides to hold a feast in Mueness era 23

1. #2701 Tiandskath decides: feast.

   Motive of Tiandskath

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 2969 · 31.77%
   wait	weight 6375
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the emotion: joy	×1.02
   the emotion: sadness	×0.81
   the memory: spouse_died from accident #1191	×0.82

2. #1191 Stiarkllue dies (accident, 20 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lainchon decides to ration the grain in Llaness era 23

1. #2704 Lainchon decides: ration.

   Motive of Lainchon

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 11,855 · 64.72%
   wait	weight 6461
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the emotion: fear	×1.58
   the memory: spouse_died from hunger #2695	×1.54

2. #2695 Thegueth dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.07%

3. #2688 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 18,603 rations were missing

4. #2687 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	62,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9655

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4590
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	902

5. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chosuizan decides to hold a feast in Stianess era 23

1. #2707 Chosuizan decides: feast.

   Motive of Chosuizan

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 4307 · 26.59%
   wait	weight 4500
   raise houses	weight 3885
   build a granary	weight 3500
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the trait: proud	×1.20
   the memory: spouse_died from accident #2127	×0.82

2. #2127 Brausthaus dies (accident, 34 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 23

1. #2715 Harvest in Llaness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	57,330
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	6212

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4050
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	557

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 23

1. #2716 Famine in Llaness.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 20,096 rations were missing

2. #2715 Harvest in Llaness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	57,330
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	6212

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4050
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	557

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2720 Season in Llaness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	114,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2716	×0.25
  Result	17,229

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 23

1. #2734 Harvest in Llaness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	51,030
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	2370

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	206

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Llaness era 23

1. #2735 Famine in Llaness.

   • 11% of what was needed was eaten; 20,779 rations were missing

2. #2734 Harvest in Llaness: 11% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	51,030
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	2370

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	206

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2740 Season in Llaness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	100,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2735	×0.11
  Result	6645

Why? Lianra founds House Guintui era 23

1. #2745 Lianra founds House Guintui.

2. #2744 Lianra, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Llaness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 23

1. #2767 Harvest in Llaness: 43% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	53,550
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,176

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3780
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	911

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 23

1. #2768 Famine in Llaness.

   • 43% of what was needed was eaten; 14,293 rations were missing

2. #2767 Harvest in Llaness: 43% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	53,550
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,176

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3780
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	911

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2773 Season in Llaness: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	106,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2768	×0.44
  Result	27,911

• #2775 Zanchaslos dies (hunger, 26 years old).

  Chance that season: 6.33%

Why? Zanchaslos, of House Tolchaus, dies of hunger era 23

1. #2775 Zanchaslos dies (hunger, 26 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.33%

2. #2768 Famine in Llaness.

   • 43% of what was needed was eaten; 14,293 rations were missing

3. #2767 Harvest in Llaness: 43% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	53,550
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,176

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3780
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	911

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lainchon and Garkthial marry era 23

1. #2777 Lainchon and Garkthial marry (commoner).

   Chance that season: 12.00%

2. #2776 Garkthial, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle by marrying Lainchon.

   Chance that season: 12.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Tolchaus dies out era 23

1. #2778 House Tolchaus dies out.

2. #2775 Zanchaslos dies (hunger, 26 years old).

   Chance that season: 6.33%

3. #2768 Famine in Llaness.

   • 43% of what was needed was eaten; 14,293 rations were missing

4. #2767 Harvest in Llaness: 43% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	53,550
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	10,176

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3780
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	911

5. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chosuizan decides to hold a feast in Stianess era 23

1. #2780 Chosuizan decides: feast.

   Motive of Chosuizan

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 4801 · 53.16%
   wait	weight 4230
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the trait: proud	×1.20
   the emotion: joy	×1.07
   the emotion: sadness	×1.04
   the memory: spouse_died from accident #2127	×0.82

2. #2127 Brausthaus dies (accident, 34 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Marriage arranged between Tiandskath and Lianra era 23

1. #2785 Tiandskath and Lianra marry (political).

2. #2783 Lainchon decides: arrange_marriage.

   Motive of Lainchon

   arrange a marriage (chosen)	weight 2532 · 18.82%
   wait	weight 7277
   send settlers out	weight 3642
   the people's value: community	×1.21
   the people's value: honor	×1.04

Root: A decision by Lainchon, with its motives.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 24

1. #2792 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	51,030
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	8081

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	705

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Llaness era 24

1. #2793 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 14,974 rations were missing

2. #2792 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	51,030
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	8081

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	705

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2798 Season in Llaness: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	100,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2793	×0.37
  Result	22,292

• #2800 Duesathes dies (hunger, 9 years old).

  Chance that season: 8.79%

Why? Duesathes, of House Ruegaus, dies of hunger era 24

1. #2800 Duesathes dies (hunger, 9 years old).

   Chance that season: 8.79%

2. #2793 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 14,974 rations were missing

3. #2792 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	51,030
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	8081

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3510
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	705

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Zuira founds House Chenstia era 24

1. #2802 Zuira founds House Chenstia.

2. #2801 Zuira, one of the common folk, enters the chronicle: Llaness had no one left with a name.

   Chance that season: 25.00%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Chosuizan decides to hold a feast in Stianess era 24

1. #2805 Chosuizan decides: feast.

   Motive of Chosuizan

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 5499 · 32.43%
   wait	weight 4068
   raise houses	weight 3885
   build a granary	weight 3500
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the trait: proud	×1.20
   the emotion: joy	×1.20
   the emotion: sadness	×1.06
   the memory: spouse_died from accident #2127	×0.82

2. #2127 Brausthaus dies (accident, 34 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 24

1. #2816 Harvest in Llaness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	45,990
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	5098

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	455

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 24

1. #2817 Famine in Llaness.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 16,317 rations were missing

2. #2816 Harvest in Llaness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	45,990
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	5098

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	455

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2821 Season in Llaness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	90,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2817	×0.25
  Result	13,710

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 24

1. #2835 Harvest in Llaness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	45,360
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	2154

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	195

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Llaness era 24

1. #2836 Famine in Llaness.

   • 10% of what was needed was eaten; 19,656 rations were missing

2. #2835 Harvest in Llaness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	45,360
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	2154

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	3240
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	195

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2840 Season in Llaness: 0 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	90,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2836	×0.11
  Result	5761

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 24

1. #2853 Harvest in Llaness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	37,800
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	7183

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	651

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 24

1. #2854 Famine in Llaness.

   • 42% of what was needed was eaten; 10,391 rations were missing

2. #2853 Harvest in Llaness: 42% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	37,800
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	7183

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×1.20
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	651

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2859 Season in Llaness: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	75,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2854	×0.43
  Result	19,341

Why? Chosuizan decides to hold a feast in Stianess era 24

1. #2861 Chosuizan decides: feast.

   Motive of Chosuizan

   hold a feast (chosen)	weight 5196 · 30.90%
   wait	weight 4230
   raise houses	weight 3885
   build a granary	weight 3500
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the people's value: honor	×1.02
   the trait: proud	×1.20
   the emotion: joy	×1.16
   the emotion: sadness	×1.04
   the memory: spouse_died from accident #2127	×0.82

2. #2127 Brausthaus dies (accident, 34 years old).

   Chance that season: 0.35%

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Mueness era 24

1. #2870 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	202,230
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the soil	×0.72
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	40,688

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	14,310
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	3999

2. #2867 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 24

1. #2871 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	6684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	597

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Llaness era 24

1. #2872 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 12,834 rations were missing

2. #2871 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	6684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	597

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2876 Season in Llaness: 2 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	84,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2872	×0.36
  Result	18,239

• #2878 Lanme dies (hunger, 9 years old).

  Chance that season: 9.08%

• #2879 Zuira dies (hunger, 39 years old).

  Chance that season: 9.08%

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Stianess era 24

1. #2873 Harvest in Stianess: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	81,270
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the soil	×0.85
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	19,195

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	5670
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	1584

2. #2867 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lanme, of House Ruegaus, dies of hunger era 24

1. #2878 Lanme dies (hunger, 9 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.08%

2. #2872 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 12,834 rations were missing

3. #2871 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	6684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	597

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Zuira, of House Chenstia, dies of hunger era 24

1. #2879 Zuira dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.08%

2. #2872 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 12,834 rations were missing

3. #2871 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	6684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	597

4. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Ruegaus dies out era 24

1. #2880 House Ruegaus dies out.

2. #2878 Lanme dies (hunger, 9 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.08%

3. #2872 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 12,834 rations were missing

4. #2871 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	6684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	597

5. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? House Chenstia dies out era 24

1. #2881 House Chenstia dies out.

2. #2879 Zuira dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.08%

3. #2872 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 12,834 rations were missing

4. #2871 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	42,210
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	6684

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2970
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	597

5. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Lainchon decides to ration the grain in Llaness era 24

1. #2882 Lainchon decides: ration.

   Motive of Lainchon

   ration the grain (chosen)	weight 14,975 · 75.52%
   wait	weight 4853
   the people's value: community	×1.43
   the emotion: fear	×1.95
   the memory: spouse_died from hunger #2695	×1.54

2. #2695 Thegueth dies (hunger, 39 years old).

   Chance that season: 9.07%

3. #2688 Famine in Llaness.

   • 36% of what was needed was eaten; 18,603 rations were missing

4. #2687 Harvest in Llaness: 36% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	62,370
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the soil	×0.79
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	9655

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	4590
   the weather: cycle	×0.98
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	902

5. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought strikes the fields of Mueness era 24

1. #2887 Harvest in Mueness: 100% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	205,380
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the soil	×0.72
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	28,925

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	14,580
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	2852

2. #2867 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 24

1. #2888 Harvest in Llaness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	38,430
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	4260

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	379

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Famine in Llaness era 24

1. #2889 Famine in Llaness.

   • 25% of what was needed was eaten; 13,451 rations were missing

2. #2888 Harvest in Llaness: 25% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	38,430
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	4260

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.70
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	379

3. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2893 Season in Llaness: 1 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	76,500
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2889	×0.26
  Result	11,768

Why? The drought leaves Stianess short of grain era 24

1. #2890 Harvest in Stianess: 90% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	81,900
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the soil	×0.85
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	13,540

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	5940
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the season	×0.70
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	1162

2. #2867 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? The drought leaves Mueness short of grain era 24

1. #2914 Harvest in Mueness: 15% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	204,120
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the soil	×0.72
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	12,320

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	14,580
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	1222

2. #2867 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Why? Hunger comes to Mueness era 24

1. #2915 Famine in Mueness.

   • 15% of what was needed was eaten; 86,495 rations were missing

2. #2914 Harvest in Mueness: 15% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	204,120
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the soil	×0.72
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	12,320

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	14,580
   the weather: cycle	×0.93
   the season	×0.30
   the drought #2867	×0.30
   Result	1222

3. #2867 A weather episode begins: drought.

Root: Chance, with the probabilities shown above.

Evidence

• #2922 Season in Mueness: 3 born among the unnamed.

  The chance of a birth

  Ruleset base	405,000
  breeds slowly (a price charged by the laws)	×0.60
  the hunger of the last harvest #2915	×0.15
  Result	37,057

Why? The bad weather leaves Llaness short of grain era 24

1. #2916 Harvest in Llaness: 10% of what was needed is eaten.

   What was farmed

   Ruleset base	38,430
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the soil	×0.79
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	1825

   What was gathered

   Ruleset base	2700
   the weather: cycle	×1.01
   the season	×0.30
   the weather: long_drought #2428	×0.20
   Result	162

2. #2428 A weather episode begins: long_drought.